‘Heathrow is the only choice now’

Our post-Brexit business credentials depend on a third runway. We cannot delay the issue any longer

HEATHROW Airport alone must be given the go-ahead for expansion, the man appointed by the Government to review airport capacity says today.

Sir Howard Davies, the chairman of the Airports Commission, said the case for expanding Heathrow was now “overwhelming” and had “strengthened in recent months” post-Brexit.

Writing in today’s Daily Telegraph, Sir Howard’s intervention comes just a day before Theresa May is to announce the Government’s favoured option on airport expansion and is likely to reflect government thinking. Last week it was suggested that the Prime Minister could announce expansion to both Heathrow and Gatwick, but Sir Howard’s comments so soon before the announcement suggest this is now unlikely.

He warns that failure to expand Heathrow alone would be “a mistake”.

Sir Howard, who spent four years examining the options on airport expansion on behalf of the Government, also criticises David Cameron over his failure to make a decision sooner.

He brands the former prime minister “an immovable object”. Sir Howard writes: “The arguments for making a decision now, and for Heathrow, have strengthened in recent months. Overseas, the lack of a decision is seen as a symbol of Britain’s inability to decide on its future as a trading nation.

“And the need for a clear strategic direction is more important since the referendum result. The rhetoric about becoming a European Singapore with a ‘blue water’ trading focus seems empty if we cannot connect to the new markets we wish to serve.”

Sir Howard warns that it would be “a mistake” to expand both Heathrow and Gatwick airports, adding: “Allowing two proposals to continue could mean neither is built.” And in a clear nod to the fact that Gatwick would not be the right choice, he states that Birmingham could be a better decision for a second round of airport expansion expected in the coming years.

A key group of Cabinet ministers will make the final decision on whether to allow airport expansion at Heathrow or Gatwick.

Sir Howard writes that it is “simply not possible” to put the decision off any longer if London is to grow and prosper following the vote to leave the EU.

Mrs May previously spoke out against expanding Heathrow but has since met with Sir Howard and has said her earlier opinion merely reflected the Government’s position at the time. The decision of the airports committee will be announced in the House of Commons tomorrow.

Chris Grayling, the Transport Secretary, yesterday warned that airport expansion would result in “challenge and opposition” regardless of which option was chosen. Mr Grayling told the BBC’s The

Andrew Marr Show that no decision had been taken on any of the three options: extending an existing runway at Heathrow or building a new runway at either Gatwick or Heathrow.

A report in The Sunday Times stated that those people living in approxi- mately 4,500 homes that will either be demolished or could suffer blight because of proximity to a new runway will be offered the market value of their houses plus 25 per cent, as well as all legal fees and stamp duty costs paid, according to a leaked report drawn up by business analysts Ernst & Young.

Mr Grayling said: “The question here is that we have to, in my view, take a decision that is in the interest of our nation.

“Of course there will be opposition, of course there will be challenge whatever we do.”

After a long period taxying around the corridors of Whitehall, the airport decision is at last lining up at the end of the parliamentary runway. The Secretary of State for Transport is expected to explain the Government’s thinking this week. Even those who do not expect to like what they hear think it is about time.

When I took the job of chairing the Airports Commission four years ago, many friends said that nothing would come of it: the political obstacles were simply too great. While David Cameron (remember him?) was at No 10 it turned out that they were right, and my work looked to have been an interesting but ultimately fruitless exercise.

While Mr Cameron remained an immovable object, the irresistible force of growing demand for aviation in and around London continued to build. My money was on the irresistible force, though I did not expect the object to be removed in the way it was.

It is simply not possible to avoid adding new runway capacity near London if the City is to continue to prosper in a highly interconnected world. Decades of attempts to find new sites on which to do so have foundered.

The arguments for making a decision now, and for Heathrow, have strengthened in recent months. Overseas, the lack of a decision is seen as a symbol of Britain’s inability to decide on its future as a trading nation. That may well be to overstate the case, but it is the way overseas businesses and governments view it. And the need for a clear strategic direction is more important since the referendum result. The rhetoric about becoming a European Singapore with a “blue water” trading focus seems empty if we cannot connect to the new markets we wish to serve.

Gatwick is largely a European shorthaul airport. It is also oriented towards outward tourism. About 70 per cent of its tourist passengers are Brits going to the sun. Sadly, relatively few residents of Marbella and Corfu come here for their summer break. At Heathrow the tourist traffic is largely inbound. With our huge balance of payments deficit, we need more high-spending American and Asian tourists to balance the books. And Heathrow has more air freight, 150 times as much as Gatwick by value. High-value exports go through the airport and its extensive infrastructure of logistics companies. Replicating that infrastructure around Gatwick would be hugely costly.

So the case for Heathrow is overwhelming today. And as planes become quieter and less polluting, it is possible to accompany expansion with measures to make the airport a quieter neighbour, as the commission spelt out. Heathrow has accepted most of those recommendations, and there are many supporters of the airport in the area (as well as opponents). You struggle to find local supporters of expansion near Gatwick.

The air quality problem, too, is capable of resolution. The pressure on the Government, from the EU and our own Supreme Court, to make faster progress on a clean-air strategy for London as a whole is helpful in reducing pollution in the area from other, non-airport-related traffic.

So the airport decision can be cleared for take-off. Indeed, some have argued that both Heathrow and Gatwick should expand.

That would be a mistake. Allowing two proposals to continue could mean neither is built, as it would be impossible to argue that both runways could be fully used in the next 20 years while meeting our legislated climate-change commitments. So the decision could be challenged in the courts.

Also, the Airports Commission ran an open competition for the first new runway. Non-shortlisted airports, notably Birmingham and Stansted, accepted the decision explicitly on the condition that they would be able to bid again for any second runway. Giving Gatwick the green light now would again risk a challenge, and might well turn out to be the wrong long-term decision. With the HS2 rail link in place, Birmingham might indeed be a more interesting option.

In a competitive airports system, capacity will only be built if it is likely to be used. Only governments can afford to build well ahead of need. So my hope is that we see a categorical decision this week. Any fudge in the box will reduce the chances of success.