Tim Robey’s Oscar tips

BEST PICTURE Will win: La La Land

It’s won every award in sight, and there seems little to prevent

La La Land highkicking its way to the Oscars podium. Steeped in loving references to cinema’s past, this is a toast to Hollywood now inviting a toast back.

Should win: Moonlight

This sublime coming-of-age story has won devoted admirers on its awards trajectory, and carries a profound message of acceptance that could give it the tempting allure of a protest vote.

BEST DIRECTOR Will win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

At 31, Chazelle isn’t quite Orson Welles – 25 when he made Citizen

Kane. But he’ll become the youngest-ever recipient of this award for reinvigorating musical forms.

Should win: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Jenkins feels like the more mature talent, and the most heartening success story of the season. There’s not an ounce of bloat to Moonlight, which balances its searing performances and woozily intoxicating visual style like a dream.

BEST ACTOR Will win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Affleck’s unforgettably soul-sick performance should just about edge it, emboldening voters to look past the sexassault charges that have mired his campaign in controversy.

Should win: Casey Affleck

This really ought to be Affleck’s moment. He masters not only the emotional payload of Manchester but its whole mood, one of six-feetunder selfrecrimination and grief suppressed, never conquered.

BEST ACTRESS Will win: Emma Stone (La La Land)

Stone is a delight in general, and delightful in La

La Land, and here’s an opportunity to appreciate everything she does so delightfully. Making the hoofing look easy, in particular, is anything but.

Should win: Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

It’s glorious that Huppert is finally an Oscar nominee. In Elle she gives us a rape victim unlike any other the screen has ever seen, and makes a brilliant case for responding exactly how she damn well chooses.