Little to smile about as Sir John tackles Brexit
Sir John Major said he’d come to give the country “a reality check”. Lord, he was gloomy. He made Eeyore sound like Tigger. Pte Frazer from Dad’s Army would have slung a consoling arm around his shoulder and told him to cheer up, look on the bright side, it might never happen.
At Chatham House in London, the former prime minister was giving his first speech on Brexit since the referendum. He did not, it’s safe to say, give it a cheery thumbs-up, nor did he congratulate the Government on its progress to date. The dolorous clang of Sir John’s voice reverberated grimly around the room. Where Boris Johnson foresaw “sunlit meadows”, Sir John foresaw drizzling wilderness.
“The British people,” he said, “have been led to expect a future that seems unreal and over-optimistic.” Opportunities had been “inflated”. The bill for leaving would be “very unpalatable”. If ministers seriously think the EU would give us everything we wanted, “they are extraordinarily naive”. To imagine Theresa May would secure an acceptable deal with the EU in the next two years was “very, very, very optimistic” – and for the Government to stand any chance of signing one at all, it would be wise to show “a little more charm and little less cheap rhetoric”.
Oh, and while we’re on the subject of deals: our hopes for one with the US “should not be set too high”, India would make demands our Government would balk at, and China might not even be interested.
Goodness. After all that, Tommy Cooper would have struggled to lift the mood.
Of course, it would be easy to wave Sir John away with a derisive paw, and snort, “Heard it all before! Pure Project Fear!” And true enough: many of these arguments were made by Remainers. The question is, though: why would Sir John break his silence, eight months later, to repeat them now? There isn’t about to be a second referendum, nor is he calling for one – so he can’t be saying all this as part of some cynical ploy to scare voters. It can only be because he believes it.
Thankfully, he seemed to brighten up a bit in the Q&A. Robert Peston from ITV asked whether Mrs May might not be a little put out by a speech of this type from a predecessor. Sir John assured him he had no intention of being a back-seat driver. “My wife tells me I’m a bad enough front-seat driver.” Peston noted that, while Sir John was prime minister, Baroness Thatcher hadn’t been shy about offering him advice. “I’d have been very happy,” replied Sir John dryly, “for Margaret to make one speech every eight months.”
As it happens, Sir John intends to make another speech very soon, this one on the threat of Scottish independence. That should give us all a nice lift.