Today’s vote in the Commons

The three scenarios

1Article 50 is passed without a hitch Government’s best scenario. MPs would debate, then pass the Bill, rejecting the amendments and sending it back to the Lords, where peers also allow it to pass in its unamended form. If this happens, the Withdrawal from the European Union (Article 50) Bill will receive Royal Assent quickly and Article 50 can be triggered immediately. The Bill will have passed all stages in both Houses and will become law in exactly the same form as it was first proposed by the Government. 2 The House of Lords fights MPs over amendments If the bill passes the Commons stage today, then goes back to the Lords where it is amended again, this becomes a problem.

Peers could trigger a process known as “ping pong” where a Bill is sent back and forth between the two chambers because nobody can agree if it should be changed or not.

The two issues on which the Government has been defeated in the Lords are on “a meaningful vote” for MPs on the final EU deal and protections for EU citizens who are already resident here.

Theresa May doesn’t want either to be part of this Bill because they could face legal delays and she is worried about being tied to promises she may not be able to keep. So far, it looks as though the Lords will not try to send it back a second time if the Commons passes the Bill to the Lords unamended.

However, there will be some who are keen to trigger the ping-pong process which could draw out the Bill’s passage and force ministers to make concessions in order to meet