A snap election can strengthen the Government before Brexit battles

With a greater majority, Theresa May will be in a stronger position ahead of tough talks with the EU

How did it all go wrong? One minute, the Government was riding high, the next, it’s in turmoil. Yet Philip Hammond’s Budget misstep is no bolt from the blue: empathy is not his strong point. During his time as defence secretary, one former officer recounts how Mr Hammond visited a military medical ward in Afghanistan. As he went round, he remarked that, in his experience at the Department for Transport, the Government considered it acceptable to spend up to £1 million to prevent one death. He then asked, to the horror of those present, what monetary value the military places on the lives of its soldiers.

The Treasury must, of course, answer this sort of unpalatable question, and it seemed like such a natural fit for Spreadsheet Phil. But the man so intent on counting the pennies has proved a spendthrift in other ways: he has spent the Government’s political capital with abandon.

The nasty fallout has damaged Theresa May’s authority in Parliament, and has set the Cabinet at odds. With Brexit sure to bring still greater turbulence, Mrs May should take the first opportunity she has to hold an early election.

The aftermath of a botched Budget might seem like a bad time to go for an election. But though it triggered a political booby trap, the Budget itself won’t harm the Government much. A YouGov survey conducted just after the event showed the Tories were polling at 44 per cent, the same share of the vote won by Tony Blair in his first landslide election. Labour, by contrast, has now hit 25 per cent. In short, Mrs May’s current problem is not the electorate. It’s Parliament.

Through guile and skill, her Government steered its Article 50 legislation through the Commons without mishap. But now that the Lords have taken it upon themselves to dictate the terms of Brexit by amending the Bill, it has to go back to MPs. The Government has a majority of just 17, and many of its MPs still feel distinctly sore about passing Article 50 legislation unamended the first time.

Mr Hammond has just provided another excuse for Tories to make life difficult for No 10. MPs might be expected to grumble quietly about a tax rise of this size. They are instead fermenting an atmosphere of rebellion and defiance.

The Cabinet’s failure to spot the danger suggests problems across Government: communications haven’t always been working well, with political advisers sometimes left out of the loop, and ministers have forgotten their own manifesto.

All of this provides a fractious and dangerous backdrop for Brexit negotiations. The only way to avoid more of it is to go to voters.

The timing is awkward, admittedly. Snap elections take 30 days and Mrs May has less than three weeks before her self-imposed deadline for triggering Article 50. But she could get away with pushing the deadline back by a week if she campaigned on a promise to start the Brexit process on day one after re-election.

Alternatively, she could accept whatever amendments the Commons insist on, trigger Article 50 within days and go to the electorate immediately. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act would need to be navigated, but the prize for taking the plunge now would be substantial. Even without the benefit of boundary changes, due in 2018, the Conservatives are likely to emerge from an election with a majority of at least 50, possibly 100. This would be a blow for the party’s rebels, who, thanks to the Government’s current small majority, currently find themselves at the height of their power. For Mrs May, a big majority would be a massive strategic boost.

This isn’t about getting a democratic mandate. Mrs May already has one, through the endorsement of her parliamentary colleagues last summer. But the Budget row has made one thing clear: the Government is not in the confident position it needs to be in to fight Britain’s corner with Brussels.

Brexit negotiations are going to be vicious. It’s highly possible that, by the end of this year, both France and Germany will have installed enthusiastically pro-Brussels governments. Until the German elections in September, Britain will be spinning its wheels by fighting a war of nasty rhetoric with the European Commission. Even outside Brussels, European hardliners are still intensely bitter about Brexit and want to make the talks as painful as possible.

As the Government tries to defend every corner, from fishing rights to migration controls and financial market access, it will need discipline, strength and clarity of purpose.

The tight timeline of just two years means that Mrs May might well need to call on Parliament for strategic help and legislation at short notice. Any sign that her Government is unstable during that period will unsettle markets, damaging Britain’s negotiating position, and Parliament’s demand for a veto over any Brexit deal could force the Government into an election at the worst possible moment.

Electorally, Mrs May is in the strongest position she will ever be. The Opposition is laughably weak, and even if a dire electoral result were to unseat Jeremy Corbyn, Labour has no strong replacement ready.

Voters approve of Mrs May’s Brexit plan and trust her instincts. How will they feel, though, after two years of arguing with the EU? She will have to make concessions to get a deal, infuriating some Brexiteers, but if the talks collapse, she will also pick up the blame for failing to get a deal. All of it will make last week’s Budget tantrum look like a warm-up act.

Now, by contrast, she can benefit from selling the Brexit dream without any squalid compromises tarnishing her image.

There is no way to play it safe. Going for an election now might seem like a gamble, but in the long run, waiting is the bigger risk.