We must prepare for a ‘no deal’ Brexit, too

Even in such a turbulent political era, this promises to be one of the most momentous weeks in recent British history. The expected passage through Parliament of the Bill to begin the process of leaving the European Union will make a legislative reality of the decision taken almost nine months ago. Some people argue that this process has taken far too long, but the political upheaval that followed the referendum and the protracted court case over parliamentary sovereign rights have delayed matters. In many ways, this has been a blessing. The Government has had time to prepare for what promise to be the most complex set of international negotiations since we sought entry to the EEC in the early Seventies. Indeed, they will pale in comparison with what lies ahead.

A report from the Commons foreign affairs committee urged the Government to devise a contingency plan in case Britain has to leave the EU with no deal and said it would be a dereliction of duty not to prepare for such an eventuality. It is gratifying to learn that the Cabinet has discussed precisely this scenario. The country needs to know before we leave what “no deal” will entail.

The biggest danger is that British pragmatism will clash with EU romanticism. While a deal allowing British goods the same access to the single market they enjoy now is in everyone’s interests, it won’t necessarily be seen that way on the Continent, especially in Brussels.

There is a risk that this process, once handed over to the European Commission by the Council of Ministers, will become mired in the very bureaucracy that led Britain to lose faith in the whole project. While Europe’s elected politicians might be inclined to recognise the good sense of a British position, they will be too distracted by their own domestic politics to focus on ours.

Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, the commission principals in charge of the EU negotiations, will be anxious to deny the UK anything that smacks of a good deal that others might wish to emulate.

The Government is wise to prepare for the possibility that there won’t be a deal. The time for further discussion is over – even if Nicola Sturgeon is threatening to hijack the moment with another phoney threat to hold a second Scottish independence referendum. Parliament needs to give the authority to start the process, preferably without further amendments to the Bill, and we can then find out precisely where we stand.