England should not be tempted to say ‘To hell with the Union’

The 2014 independence referendum in Scotland was fought on two fronts. Certainly the most important was in Scotland. But attitudes south of the border mattered, too. For many in England, my ancestor Sir Walter Scott’s notion that you could have the romance and beauty of Scotland within the security and strength of the Union was as compelling as it had been in his time, 200 years earlier. Consequently, it was a partnership for which the English were prepared to make considerable sacrifices.

Yet now many in England have their own independence battle to fight – Brexit. And Nicola Sturgeon is calculating that this time, if it comes down to a choice between successfully leaving the EU, or holding on to the Union, many English Brexiteers will choose to let Scotland go.

Three years ago, that was not the case. That meant acceptance of the Barnett Formula providing materially higher per-capita public spending in Scotland. It involved David Cameron agreeing to devolve further powers. And it necessitated the main unionist parties deploying considerable human and financial resources to make the arguments and help get out the vote. In Labour’s case, some MPs fought bravely for the Union, even though they knew it would seal their own grim fate in Scotland in the general election less than a year later.

Even then, of course, some voters in England said they had heard enough of Scottish demands – something I can attest to from dozens of doorstep conversations as a parliamentary candidate in a south London constituency.

So there is no doubt that the First Minister is hoping that, in addition to her own supporters in Scotland, a new army of English nationalists will turn out to wave Scotland goodbye. She will pray that the famous fanaticism of her nationalists online, backed up by leaflets through letterboxes and knocks on doors, will be matched by the fervour of those south of the border who demand that Westminster prioritises Brexit over any Union deal – or worse, that a break-up with Scotland is actually a positive side effect of the UK’s departure from the EU.

This is a terrible mistake. Those who think that keeping Scotland in the UK is not a cause worth fighting for – or not worth fighting against – must think again. Circumstances may have changed, but the same arguments as ever apply in Scotland, where the Scottish deficit stands at 9.5 per cent of GDP (more than double the rest of the UK and, for what it is worth, triple the 3 per cent rate required by the European Stability and Growth Pact). And they apply in England, too.

This is not a time to fall for Ms Sturgeon’s simplistic notion that you can have Brexit or the Union, but not both. Campaigning in referendums can be a brutal business. The nuance of a normal election is lost. You are with us or you are against us.

Yet while you may think the Brexit referendum vote last year was fraught, the Scottish vote in 2014 was particularly brutal, with communities, families and long-standing friendships still badly bruised.

We must not allow this poisonous attitude to take hold across the country by allowing Brexit and #indyref2 to become part of a single debate, so bitter that in the end each country will wish the other good riddance.

Nicola Sturgeon does not have logical arguments to press for the break-up of the Union. Her best chance lies in stirring up mutual resentment between our two great nations. We must not let her succeed.