Russia needs to stop its warlike posturing

Is there a strategy? This question hangs in the air after Donald Trump abandoned his isolationist propensities and brought American power to bear once again on the politics of the Middle East. The US president and his advisers are adamant that the point has been made: unlike Barack Obama, who fulminated against Bashar al-Assad’s brutality but did nothing, Mr Trump has acted decisively.

But even if the White House considers this to be a one-off action it still has geopolitical consequences – and it is by no means clear that Mr Trump knows what they are or is prepared for them. If the aim is to stop the Russian-backed Syrian regime bombing its own citizens, that has already failed since the jets have been in action again. Doubtless the war planners in Damascus will think twice about using chemical weapons since that would invite the same response. But for the people of Syria, being killed by a conventional missile carries the same fate as being obliterated by a chlorine barrel bomb.

When Assad used sarin gas in 2013 he was told to expect a military retaliation, but it never happened. The Commons voted against British involvement and thereby stayed President Obama’s hand, causing a power vacuum in the region that has been filled by Russia and Iran. However, we should remember why David Cameron failed to get parliamentary support: MPs were appalled by Assad’s actions but were concerned to know what happened next – principally whether it meant deeper Western military involvement.

This was not clear then and it is not clear now. Indeed, everything is far more complicated today because Russia was not the major participant in the Syrian conflict that it now is. The implications of this are profound and the rhetoric is being ramped up to dangerous levels. Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, has cancelled a long-planned trip to Moscow to embark on a mission to obtain Western support for a new political process. Rex Tillerson, the US secretary of state, will press Russia to stop supporting Assad when he visits Moscow this week, assuming that goes ahead. Part of a deal could involve Moscow’s readmittance to the G7 (formerly the G8) group of nations, from which it was ejected after annexing Crimea. Whatever happens next, the various sides need to stop their bellicose posturing and refocus on the need for a diplomatic solution. If Mr Trump does have a strategy, that is the direction it must take.