Tillerson’s hand is weakened by G7

Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State, would doubtless have preferred to travel to Moscow for talks about Syria today with the unanimous endorsement of the G7 foreign ministers in his pocket. But their meeting in the medieval city of Lucca exposed the differences of approach which Vladimir Putin so relishes exploiting. In particular, the continental European nations – Germany, France and Italy – were unwilling to go along with British demands for a tough attitude towards the Kremlin over its continuing support for Bashar al Assad’s regime. The Italian foreign minister seemed to sum up the mood of his fellow Europeans by saying they did not want to push Russia into a corner. However, with a lack of consensus among the Western allies, Mr Tillerson’s hand has been weakened.

The US cruise missile strike last week on the airbase from which Syrian jets launched a nervegas attack on Idlib appeared to presage a new stage in the conflict. Once again there has been talk of the need to get rid of Assad if there is to be any prospect of peace. But this will only be possible with Russia’s help. Arguably, the Europeans were right to question whether getting President Putin’s support for removing Assad would be advanced by threatening the Russian leader with new and tougher sanctions. Those in place have not worked because they have been so half-heartedly applied, by Germany and Italy in particular.

It was hardly surprising, then, that Boris Johnson’s first big foray into geopolitical diplomacy foundered, partly because the ground was not adequately prepared, though he can take some credit for bringing the US more into line with Britain’s approach. The Foreign Secretary also said that sanctions will be back on the agenda once an investigation into the sarin attack has concluded should evidence of Russian complicity be found. Again, however, the history of such inquiries suggests little will come of that.

Mr Johnson now says it is important to “work with Russia” to bring the Syrian tragedy to an end, and he wants Moscow to be “part of the solution”. This is a sensible approach that should still the bellicose noises from the Kremlin. It is also a salutary lesson for Mr Johnson: by all means seek to make President Putin aware that his interests are better served by dumping Assad; but only threaten to wield the stick when it is already in your hand.