Trump must learn his lines for the global stage
Ahead of delicate visits to Saudi Arabia and Iran, the president cannot risk more diplomatic controversy
The last thing Donald Trump needs as he prepares to head off on his first overseas jaunt as president is a new controversy over whether or not he inadvertently disclosed highly classified intelligence during his recent meeting with the Russian foreign minister.
Doubts have already been cast over Mr Trump’s credibility as a world leader after the difficulties he has encountered during his first months in office, from his attempts to impose visa restrictions on Muslims to his less-than-convincing handling of the dismissal of FBI director James Comey.
Mr Trump’s supporters believe the allegations that the president leaked sensitive intelligence to the Russians have been made by Washington’s largely Democrat-dominated intelligence community, which is still seething over Mr Comey’s dismissal.
Irrespective of how much truth there is to these claims, the more concerning issue for those of us who still look to Washington for strong leadership is the damage yet further indications of incompetence by the Trump administration will have on the president’s reputation.
This is particularly true as Mr Trump embarks on his foreign mission later this week. It will be a nine-day, five-stop, four-nation tour, with the highlights likely to be his visits to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Vatican.
While the president has attracted much domestic criticism over his management style, there is concern elsewhere about how Mr Trump deals with national security issues. This is particularly true in the Middle East, where his decision to launch strikes against Syria last month has signalled a dramatic policy shift by the White House in its approach to the region.
The president’s decision to make Saudi Arabia his first port of call, for example, marks a complete reversal of the Obama administration’s attitude, which was more interested in building relations with Iran, the Saudis’ long-standing regional enemy, than maintaining Washington’s historic ties with the Saudi royal family.
Barack Obama’s pro-iran stance was driven by the prominent role he played in negotiating the historic deal in 2015 to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons, which he also hoped would result in Iran’s Shia regime being more constructive in its dealings with its Sunni neighbours. Instead, Iran has continued to meddle, especially in Gulf states like Bahrain and Iraq, while supporting rebel groups such as the Houthis in their attempts to overthrow Yemen’s democratically elected – and pro-saudi – government.
Another consequence of the Obama administration’s abandonment of traditional Sunni allies like Saudi Arabia is that it has galvanized Riyadh into action, with the Saudis taking a lead role in the controversial military campaign to defeat the Houthis.
Mohammed bin Salman al-saud, the country’s energetic deputy crown prince and defence minister, told me during a recent visit I made to Riyadh that he thought Saudi Arabia had previously been “in hibernation” when it came to countering the Iranian threat, but that the country was now determined to defeat any attempt by the ayatollahs to export their radical ideology.
The Trump administration shares a similar view, and I am told that James Mattis, the US defence secretary, has ordered the Pentagon to draw up plans to improve Saudi Arabia’s military capability so that it can act as an effective bulwark against further acts of Iranian aggression.
Iran has been quiet in recent months, no doubt because the country is preoccupied with this Friday’s presidential election. But no matter who wins, it is unlikely that Iran will desist from its meddling in the rest of the region, activities that could easily bring it into direct confrontation with Washington.
Israel is another country that is taking a close interest in the formulation of Mr Trump’s policy towards Iran. As with Saudi Arabia, Mr Trump can expect a warm reception when he arrives in Tel Aviv. The Israelis are looking forward to ending the diplomatic isolation they suffered under Mr Obama. They will be particularly interested to hear what Mr Trump has to say about reviving the peace process with the Palestinians, though any suggestion that the Israelis need to make territorial concessions to achieve peace is unlikely to go down well with the more hawkish members of Israel’s government.
These, then, are just a few examples of the challenging issues that await a political ingenue like Mr Trump, whose own limited knowledge of the global arena is such that his advisers have set up a series of high-powered seminars conducted by the likes of Dr Henry Kissinger, who knows a thing or two about conducting diplomacy in troubled parts of the world.
And, so far as the Trump administration’s reputation overseas is concerned, it is important that the president actually pays heed to the advice he is given.
Otherwise, a president who has so far shown little interest in learning the political ropes in Washington could soon find himself subject to ridicule before a far larger, truly global audience.
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