Tighter polls show Corbyn threat is real, says minister
THE Conservatives’ shrinking lead in the polls should “focus minds” among the party’s supporters that an election victory is not assured, a Cabinet minister has said.
Polls published yesterday and today give the Conservatives single digit leads over Labour – the party’s smallest advantage this year.
A Survation poll of 1,034 UK residents aged over 18 for ITV’S Good Morning Britain gave the Tories a nine-point lead, putting them on 43 per cent, with Labour on 34 per cent.
Survation said that lead had halved from 18 per cent in just a week.
The new polls came after public criticism of the Tories’ manifesto – launched last Thursday – in particular regarding the party’s social care plans.
Damian Green, the Work and Pensions Secretary, told the Andrew Marr Show: “I think this will focus people’s minds on the fact that in less than a month’s time Jeremy Corbyn could be leading the Brexit negotiations.
“Given Labour’s complete lack of credibility, nonsensical economic policy, as well as their other policies, nobody surely wants that.”
Survation interviewed 1,034 UK residents aged over 18. Their poll put the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent and Ukip on 4 per cent.
Yougov’s earlier poll also gave the Tories a nine-point lead, with 44 per cent of the vote, compared with Labour’s 35 per cent.
The Conservatives have held such a large lead for so long over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party that it has come to seem almost the natural order of things. So the news that the Tories, following the launch of their manifesto last week, have had a minor wobble in the polls is being greeted in some quarters as a seismic development. Here is the evidence of a major blunder over social care, the Prime Minister’s critics say, and proof of the popularity of Mr Corbyn’s ultra-leftist policies.
It is nothing of the kind. This is barely a tremor, let alone an earthquake. For a start, it comes to something when Labour – a party that recently aspired to power – celebrates because it trails its rivals by “only” nine points. Moreover, the evidence of pollsters suggests that this bounce stems from the potential backing of new, young voters. Yet it is precisely this group which is least likely to turn out on polling day, while traditional Labour voters – profoundly antagonised by Jeremy Corbyn’s unpatriotic leadership – are certainly still considering their options and may yet defect. Labour activists on the doorstep know that their party’s leader is an impediment, a turn-off for many who have not dreamed of voting another way for decades. The truth is that this is probably as good as it gets for Labour.
For the Conservatives, by contrast, there is the comfort, if that is what is really needed, that dips in the polls are commonplace for the party making the running in any campaign. There have been many comparisons between the current election and the era of Margaret Thatcher. Today, it is the 1987 vote that comes to mind; in that campaign, too, Labour narrowed the Conservative lead. Then, Conservative Central Office was profoundly disquieted as things tightened up – to four points – before the Tories pulled away.
There is no need for any panic now. In fact, wise heads in Theresa May’s government may secretly be grateful for the latest survey results. For one, it helps guard against any complacency within the party ranks; for another, it will surely help galvanise any Tory supporters who thought they needn’t bother voting because the result was already in the bag.
For all the rows about individual issues, the fact remains that this election is about leadership: about which person the electorate trusts to lead this country through one of the most important political periods in living memory. Theresa May has proved her capability time and again, and has set out a clear agenda for the Brexit negotiations.
Jeremy Corbyn, by contrast, is a man not even trusted by many of his own MPS. And yesterday, he provided yet further evidence of why he should not be trusted by the country at large. Following the revelations on Saturday in this newspaper that the security service, MI5, opened a file on the Labour leader because of his close links to the IRA, he was repeatedly asked yesterday to condemn the terrorists, but refused. On five occasions, the question was put to him, and on five occasions he could not bring himself to do so, merely offering generic statements frowning on “all bombing”.
It is hard to know what is worse here: the fact of Mr Corbyn’s longstanding sympathy for violent elements within the Irish republican movement, or his simple inability to see why many might find that deeply irresponsible, and even treacherous. As he was probed on the subject yesterday, he appeared to be almost baffled by the line of questioning, saying: “I don’t quite know what point you are trying to make here.”
If he doesn’t, the rest of the nation does. The point is whether Mr Corbyn is fit to shoulder the extraordinary task of running the country in the next five years, whether he is capable of defending its strategic interests, militarily, economically and at the negotiating table. The answer to all these questions is “no”, and the reason why is that, as he himself admits, he doesn’t really understand why these questions are important.
There are sure to be several further ups and downs to come before polling day. Individuals and parties may blunder, and polls may fluctuate. But there is one message that will certainly remain the same: Theresa May is ready and able to lead the country. Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t deserve to.