A considered response to a very real threat
The nation is still coming to terms with the odious nature of Monday night’s terror attack on a pop concert in Manchester which killed 22 people, including many children. Families of the victims may never do so. Some of the many wounded will face years of rehabilitation, and carry the scars of what occurred for the rest of their lives. But even as survivors fled the scene and emergency services arrived at the Manchester Arena, seeking to treat the dreadful injuries they encountered, other branches of government had, by necessity, moved on. They were focused not on what had happened, but on what might be to come; not on dealing with the ghastly effects of Salman Abedi’s cowardly suicide attack, but on assessing the likelihood of a sequel, and seeking to prevent it.
We know, now, what their assessment has been. British prime ministers are stewards of the world’s most celebrated democracy; their governments act through the mother of Parliaments. None worthy of the role could relish the prospect of ordering soldiers on to the streets. But Theresa May has long experience in balancing the democratic imperative with government’s duty to protect. As a notably thoughtful home secretary, she weighed such matters carefully. Deployed by others, phalanxes of soldiers and ever more highly armed police could be cause for concern. For when the state claims new powers, its citizens are right to ask when they will be handed back.
There is reassurance, then, that this response is not lightly embarked on, and not, as some Leftwing conspiracists have glibly suggested, for political reasons. But that reassurance is in itself cause for concern, for it is testament to increasingly deep-felt suspicion among the authorities that a bombmaker or larger terror cell remains at large in Britain, and that, while our intelligence services are closing in, the window of opportunity to prevent a second attack may be small. Cressida Dick, the new Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, has announced that major events will have their security reviewed. She is keen to emphasise that London remains “open for business”, but potential tourists looking on from abroad at militaristic images beamed from Britain may draw another conclusion.
These are the immense challenges and delicate compromises that come with great responsibility. As the investigation continues, it is clear that Abedi is only the beginning of the trail, with some leads rapidly taking on a more complex, more international perspective. So far five people have been arrested in connection with the plot. Abedi’s younger brother, Hashem, has been detained in Libya for alleged links to the so-called Islamic State. As for the bomber’s father, it turns out that he has a long and involved relationship with an armed opposition group to the regime of the country’s former dictator, Muammar Gaddafi.
It is not yet clear precisely how Abedi’s family history may – or may not – have influenced his decision to carry a sophisticated explosive device into the foyer of the Manchester Arena. Forensic evidence suggests he carried a detonator in his left hand. But there might also have been a capacity to detonate the bomb remotely. Did he trigger the explosion himself? Did someone else? Did he bring the bomb into the country? If so from where? And who made it?
The answer to these questions will determine if Abedi’s attack truly might be followed by another, or if the Government can recall the troops. That is why answers are being pursued with such urgency. But one thing that is not in doubt is that Libya, whatever role it has played in this specific attack, is an increasingly lawless state whose turbulent, tribal warring is a ready breeding ground for militants, and a convenient launching point for African migrants – some 6.6 million of whom have gathered in North Africa, according to German estimates, ready to attempt the journey to Europe. Libya’s current appalling instability is a blot on the reputation of the coalition which led the military intervention there in 2011 – of which Britain was a leading member. Six years on, there is no flicker of stability, and no sign of stability to come. Failed states have long been rods for the backs of Western democracies. Think of Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Libya, it seems, may be about to add its name to that dread list. If it does, it will be a rod of our own making.