‘You can see Labour’s hold over safe seats is fracturing’
Sir Michael Fallon is a rare species indeed: a front-bench politician who is prepared to discuss opinion polls.
Ask Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn or almost any other senior politician about them and they will reply, with metronomic regularity, that “the only poll that matters is the one on June 8”.
But the Defence Secretary is on his 10th election, and wears the expression of one who has learnt to treat triumph and adversity equally when it comes to poll predictions, as he discusses the Tories’ diminishing lead in the boardroom of the Conservatives’ campaign headquarters.
“I never believed we were 20 points ahead,” smiles Sir Michael, referring to polls that put his party as many as 24 percentage points above Labour at the start of the campaign. “There was no evidence on the ground that we were 20 points ahead.”
The latest polls suggest that lead has been whittled down to as few as three points, but if that has prompted any panic in the Conservative Party, it has not come from Sir Michael.
“The last two elections in this country have been very tight,” he says, “but what’s interesting is that when you go to Labour areas you can see the shift away. Labour’s hold over those seats is fracturing, you can see people seriously considering voting Conservative and respecting the Prime Minister’s toughness.”
Has that changed since Labour published its goodies-for-all manifesto?
“Not at all. I’ve not met a single Labour voter who has said I’m going back to Labour because of nationalisation. On the contrary.
“Labour voters are worried about two things – defence, and Corbyn’s defence policy seems to be to defend terrorists – and they’re worried about Brexit and making sure we get a good deal out of Brexit. They understand how difficult and complex it’s going to be. Can you seriously imagine Diane Abbott negotiating for this country? That terrifies me.”
Sir Michael, along with his fellow ministers, is planning for another five years in power, and says new laws to cap energy tariffs and to create new grammar schools will be among the first bills presented to Parliament.
At 65, Sir Michael is one of only two current ministers who served under Margaret Thatcher (the other being Sir Patrick Mcloughlin, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster). The boardroom at CCHQ is dominated by a huge portrait of Thatcher, but Sir Michael says he has never described himself as a Thatcherite. “I’m a Conservative” is his reaction when confronted with the label.
“It’s a bit like the Sixties – if you remember it as Thatcherism you almost certainly weren’t there. Margaret Thatcher was very pragmatic and cautious in some of her reforms.
“Every new leader puts his or her stamp on the party and each new leader is a leader for their time. I’m very proud of Margaret Thatcher’s record but Theresa May is the leader for our time.” On the subject of another leader – President Donald Trump – Sir Michael is rather less effusive.
He says he was “extremely disappointed” when Mr Trump announced he was pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
“Britain has always believed in standing by its word and that’s what we hoped America would do.”
He does not, however, think Britain should cancel the planned state visit of President Trump later this year, when he will be a guest of the Queen at Buckingham Palace.
Sir Michael adds that the Paris withdrawal is the only time the president has followed through on one of the more extreme suggestions he made during his presidential campaign.
“We have seen the president get engaged in the Middle East, we have seen the president re-commit to Nato, and we’ve seen him considering further American deployment in Afghanistan. These were all things on the campaign trail he questioned. The Trump administration has accepted its world role. This is the only exception.”
Sir Michael is one of Mrs May’s most trusted ministers, one of a small number on a roster who are sent out to television and radio studios to explain policies and attack Labour. He is so highly regarded, in fact, that he is said to be on a shortlist of two – along with Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary – to replace Philip Hammond as Chancellor if there is a major reshuffle.
Would he take the job? “We are all focusing on Thursday, not on Friday,” he insists with finality.
In truth, he speaks of his current job with such gusto that he might be sorry to be asked to move on.
In his shirt sleeves he wears one cufflink with the crest of HMS Queen Elizabeth and one with the crest of HMS Prince of Wales – Britain’s two long-awaited new aircraft carriers, and he talks excitedly about the former’s first sea trials and the launch of the latter later this year.
He promises that “the days of Army redundancies are over”, with the force’s strength being built up from 79,000 to the 82,000 personnel promised in the 2015 defence review. But he admits that the Army is “having a tough time recruiting”.
“Afghanistan was a recruiting sergeant,” he says. “We’re also competing in all three services against a growing economy.”
In 2013, as a business minister, Sir Michael played an instrumental role in the privatisation of Royal Mail – which Jeremy Corbyn wants to reverse. The policy is popular with young voters, but Sir Michael says rose-tinted views of state-run industries are misplaced.
“If you could show them now what British Rail was like in the Seventies, or how you had to sit in your flat for days waiting for a telephone engineer to appear, nobody would doubt the importance of privatisation.
“It would cost billions to buy it back. That’s money that can’t be used on the NHS and schools. It’s a ludicrous policy that will take us back to the Seventies.”
‘The last two elections have been very tight. When you go to Labour areas you can see the shift away’
‘Labour voters want a good Brexit deal. Can you seriously imagine Diane Abbott negotiating for this country?’