May’s gamble backfires
Exit polls predict Tory struggle to keep majority following Labour resurgence PM’S future and Brexit plans in doubt as senior Conservatives criticise campaign Young turn out for Corbyn, SNP vote slips and Lib Dems on course for gains
THERESA MAY’S election gamble may have backfired as exit polls and early results last night suggested she would struggle to retain the Conservatives’ majority, leaving Britain with a hung parliament.
The result – if proved correct – puts both Mrs May’s premiership and her Brexit plans in doubt as a BBC/ITV/SKY poll predicted the Tories having 314 seats – down 17 – with Labour gaining 34 seats to put it on 266.
It raises the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn leading a minority government – the “coalition of chaos” of which Mrs May had persistently warned.
The SNP was predicted to have lost 22 seats, leaving Nicola Sturgeon’s party with 34, with the Liberal Democrats up six seats to 14.
The Ukip vote appeared to have collapsed, with the party predicted to end up with no MPS. Deserting voters were expected to play a decisive role in the result, depending on whom they backed instead.
With Brexit negotiations beginning in just 11 days, the outcome was being watched almost as keenly in Brussels as in the UK.
Mrs May, who called the election hoping to “strengthen her hand” in Brexit talks, had a working majority of 17 seats before the election and repeatedly told voters that if she lost just six seats, Mr Corbyn would be prime minister.
Both Labour and the Conservatives warned it was “early days” and there was scepticism on both sides about the accuracy of the poll. In 1992 and 2015 exit polls suggested a hung parliament, but the Conservatives ended up with a majority.
Turnout across the country appeared to be high, traditionally a good sign for Labour, with young voters apparently out in force to back Mr Corbyn’s tax and spend manifesto.
The pound tanked by 1.7 per cent against the dollar as soon as the exit poll was published.
Prof John Curtice, the polling analyst who was first to announce the Tories’ unexpected overall majority in 2015, said: “Unless the exit poll is incredibly wrong, it seems the Prime Minister has failed to achieve her objective of a landslide or a large majority.
“We are still probably talking about Theresa May or somebody from the Conservative Party heading the next administration and we can’t rule out the possibility that the Conservatives end up with an overall majority.”
The first results of the night did not bear out the size of the swing to Labour predicted by the exit poll.
In Houghton and Sunderland South, retained by Labour, there was a 3.5 per cent swing to the Tories, while in Sunderland Central, also retained by Labour, the swing to the Tories was 2.3 per cent. In Washington and Sunderland West, the swing to the Tories was 2.1 per cent.
However, there were also swings to Labour, including a 3.7 per cent increase in their vote share in Swindon South and a 2 per cent swing to Labour in Newcastle Central.
Sir Craig Oliver, formerly David Cameron’s director of communications, said: “It’s going to be an incredibly volatile period if this is true. If this is right you will see people plotting ... maybe in the next 24 hours. That could mean another general election.”
Labour’s predicted gain of 34 seats would be the party’s biggest uplift since Tony Blair’s win in 1997. In Scotland, a loss of 22 seats would be far worse than the SNP could have feared.
A source close to Mr Corbyn said Mrs May’s reputation had been “shot to pieces” while John Mcdonnell, the shadow chancellor, said her position appeared “increasingly untenable” based on the exit poll.
Mr Mcdonnell said: “She went for it to secure a mandate that she already had and people saw through that. It was for party advantage.
“People saw this as opportunism. Even if the result is anywhere near this, it was a catastrophic error and people have seen through it.”
Emily Thornberry, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary, accused Mrs May of “hubris” in calling the election, saying: “I think we’re on a verge of a great result. I think she should go, because she has manifestly failed.”
David Gauke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, hit back by saying Mrs May’s position “isn’t in question”.
He said: “I don’t think there’s anyone else who could lead us into the negotiations so effectively. The idea that we should ignore that and navel-gaze would be a big mistake.
“Theresa May continues to be the right person to lead that. She’s the right person for the job, clearly.
“Given that we’ve got really important negotiations beginning in 11 days time the responsibility of those of us who hope to be elected as Conservative MPS is to continue to support her.”
Michael Gove, the former education secretary, said: “The PM has an absolute right to stay in place at the end of this night, I think we will have a Conservative majority.”
Kenneth Clarke, the Tory veteran, said: “The worst possible outcome would be a hung parliament. If we can get another parliament with a small majority, we will have to have some deeper debate on a lot of issues, particularly Brexit. It’s time for our politics to change a little which i think the public would appreciate but that’s simply my hope.”
A surge in support for Jeremy Corbyn among young voters appeared to have been significant in Labour’s change of fortunes.
Prof Michael Thrasher, Sky News’s election analyst, said that turnout ap- peared to be up and “the kinds of people that haven’t been voting in the past do appear to be voting in this election.”
That “appears to point towards” younger voters having turned out to support Labour, he said.
George Osborne, the former chancellor, said the result appeared to be “ghastly” for the Tories and “catastrophic” for Mrs May. He added that he could not see how she could form a coalition if the figures were correct.
Sir Craig said: “The team that’s done this exit poll has got it right more often than it hasn’t.
“Every seat is going to count. If this is accurate, in Conservative Central Headquarters there will be deep and lasting shock. This is the biggest gamble a politician has taken for a long time and if the exit poll is right, it will have failed.”
He added: “There was a lot of Conservative dissatisfaction under the surface with this campaign. Some Tories did not like the fact that it focused exclusively on Theresa May for so long and others disliked the manifesto.”
He added that “politics is all about expectation management” and the Tories had indicated that they would gain a 50-seat majority. Anything less than 50 would leave Mrs May “in serious trouble”, he said.
Ken Loach, the film director, who supported Mr Corbyn’s campaign, said: “If this is true, it is an extraordinary result for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, starting so far back and written off.”
Lib Dem grandee Sir Menzies Campbell suggested that Tim Farron would not agree to a coalition deal with either party. He said: “Tim Farron made it very clear – no pact, no deal, no coalition.”
Ms Thornberry said that if there was a hung parliament, “we will put forward a Queen’s Speech and Labour MPS will support it and we will ask MPS from other parties to support it.
“If they do not, it will be for them to explain to their constituents why they have allowed a highly unpopular Conservative Government to carry on with the same old same old.”