The one-woman show that has revived Tory fortunes in Scotland

Thanks to Ruth Davidson, the Conservatives and their brand of unionism are winning new converts

The remarkable rise of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the genuine, and surprising, success stories of recent British political history. Wiped out completely by the Tony Blair avalanche in 1997, it narrowly escaped oblivion again in 2015 when its singleton MP hung on by only a few hundred votes in the SNP tsunami that swept through all bar three of Scotland’s 59 constituencies.

Fast forward to 2017 and, irrespective of today’s results, the situation is dramatically changed. The Scottish Conservatives (or “effing Tories”, as then prime minister David Cameron ruefully conceded was their more common street-name north of the border) are now a force to be reckoned with.

Last year they secured what had once seemed an impossibility – status as Scotland’s second and therefore main opposition party in the Holyrood parliament. And a few weeks ago they notched up some even more remarkable achievements – gaining over 160 seats in the local council elections. It wasn’t just the numbers that shocked their opponents; it was the places where Tory councillors were elected that raised eyebrows. Areas of Scotland where elected Tories had been rarer than ospreys suddenly found themselves with Conservative councillors.

These were places like Shettleston, one of Glasgow’s toughest and most deprived areas (where the current editor of the Spectator was once offered a gun for sale); like down-atheel Ferguslie Park in Paisley; and like Ravenscraig in Lanarkshire, location of the once-mighty steel works which Margaret Thatcher is still blamed for closing, even though she didn’t.

The reason for this success is not difficult to discern and can be summed up in two words – Ruth Davidson. The 38-year-old, now in her seventh year as party leader, has transformed the Scottish Tories by unashamedly being herself. Her personal life as a gay, former TA soldier with a penchant for kick-boxing – qualities not normally associated with leading Conservatives – have become almost a cliché but haven’t held her back one bit. Indeed, they’re only ever now remarked upon by outsiders.

To Scots, it’s her council-house, comprehensive-school background, coupled with a genuine local accent, blistering turn of phrase and commonsense approach to the everyday problems of ordinary people that have made the difference and proved to voters that the Tories are no longer either the toffs’ party or, even worse in some eyes, the English party.

Another huge plus has been Davidson’s broadcasting experience. A producer with BBC Scotland after university, she excelled in television debates during the 2014 referendum campaign and has since proved herself to be more than a match for the vastly more experienced Nicola Sturgeon.

Above all, however, it has been her limpet-like adherence to one policy that has contributed most of all to the Tories’ revival: unionism. So she has focused relentlessly on what she has dubbed First Minister Sturgeon’s “obsession” with holding another referendum on Scottish independence in perhaps two years’ time, despite saying that the last such vote – in 2014 – was a “once in a lifetime” event.

She blames Sturgeon’s preoccupation with breaking up Britain for her failure to halt declining standards in Scotland’s schools and missed waiting time targets in the NHS. It is an accusation that has resonated hugely with voters; as she traverses the country, the Tory leader insists again and again that only a vote for the Tories can scupper the Nats’ referendum plans.

This message has even helped her win over many thousands of traditional Labour voters who are opposed to separation, who can’t bring themselves to support Jeremy Corbyn and who are mystified by a confusing stance on a referendum from Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader. Significantly, too, Davidson has managed to get the predominately-remainer Scots to focus on the referendum issue instead of Brexit, which is what Sturgeon wanted. Labourites have also been impressed by the Tory leader’s enthusiasm for devolution and for the extra powers – including over taxation – granted to the Scottish Parliament. It wasn’t always thus.

When she first became leader, Davidson said there was “a line in the sand” beyond which she wouldn’t go in relation to more devolved powers. However, the tide – in the shape of prime minister David Cameron – came in and washed away that line.

He convinced her that the Scottish Tories, once fierce opponents of

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devolution, should now be its greatest advocates. She responded wholeheartedly, insisting that more devolved powers were a better option for Scotland than independence.

So much so that the impressive recent surge in Tory fortunes is no false dawn like the one that occurred during the general election campaign of 2005. Then, Scottish Tory bigwigs believed that the party was in line to pick up no fewer than 11 seats north of the border; an astonishing achievement if they had pulled it off.

As history tells us, they didn’t. It was an incredibly stupid prediction and another total disaster. The Tories did capture one constituency but in the process they lost the one they’d held since 2001. Net gain: Nil.

It was a humiliating reverse and showed that the Tories had advanced hardly at all since their total wipe out in 1997. Their toxicity north of the border remained.

Today, 20 years after their Scottish MPS were expelled, bag and baggage, from the Commons, a change is coming. For most of the intervening period only the present Secretary of State, David Mundell, has fought Scotland’s corner.

He deserves some of the credit for the Scottish Conservatives’ recent rise, but essentially this has been a onewoman show. Ruth Davidson has tackled, head-on, the nationalists on independence. In doing so she has spoken up for the many thousands of Scots who believe that their country’s constitutional future was decided in 2014.

They just want their government to stop obsessing about separation and concentrate on improving their schools and hospitals. It’s a modest demand, surely, but one Nicola Sturgeon has failed to answer.