A DUP deal may lead to Brexit consensus

Given the scale of the political crisis, the House of Commons was in a relatively jolly mood yesterday as MPS gathered after the election to elect a Speaker and take the oath of allegiance. As expected, John Bercow, who has occupied the chair for eight years, will continue in the post at a time when he has a crucial role to play. We may have had our disagreements with Mr Bercow, but his experience will be needed in the months and years to come.

Even if the Democratic Unionist Party finally agrees to prop up the Conservative Government, its deal with Theresa May is likely to be reached on a confidence and supply basis only. This guarantees its votes on the Queen’s Speech and the Budget but not on anything else. Every piece of legislation will have to be fought over and will always be vulnerable.

The DUP’S votes offer a modicum of stability at a time of great political uncertainty. But Sir John Major, the former Prime Minister, questioned whether any pact was necessary since the Unionists would never risk bringing down the Tories and possibly letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. He has a point, though in the circumstances Mrs May has reached for the only available option that gives her the chance of staying in office.

Sir John said the price is too high because it could undermine the political process in Northern Ireland. Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the governments in London and Dublin act as independent arbiters between the nationalists and Unionists in the province. If the DUP is allied to the Conservatives might this destabilise power-sharing in Northern Ireland?

There is no reason why it should. Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein leader, sits in the Irish Dail and his party’s long-term ambition is to form the government of the republic or at least be part of it. Given the nature of its agreement with the Tories – which continues the informal working support it offered in the last Parliament – the DUP is entitled to help stabilise the government of the UK.

What will be critical is the DUP’S stance on Brexit. It wants to avoid a hard border between the EU and the UK running through the island of Ireland. Although Mrs May appears determined to plough ahead with the same Brexit policy she had before the election, there is growing pressure for a cross-party consensus. The deal with the DUP may be the beginnings of one.