A pact that could yet harm the Tories
It is 40 years since a parliamentary pact was last negotiated to keep a minority government in office, as opposed to forming a formal coalition as happened in 2010. In 1977, the Labour administration of James Callaghan lost its Commons majority and struck a deal with the Liberals that lasted for 18 months. Agreements of this sort are not, in other words, uniquely Tory constructs. They are an essential requirement of our parliamentary system if no party achieves an overall majority or loses one while in office. Voters failed to give the Conservatives an outright win on June 8 but Theresa May won far and away the most seats and is entitled to govern. She is also within her rights to look for support from within the House of Commons and has secured a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) for its 10 votes.
Labour’s phony indignation at this arrangement was exposed by Nigel Dodds of the DUP, who pointed out that Labour explored the possibility of a similar arrangement to keep Gordon Brown in power in 2010. As the leader of the largest party charged by the Queen with forming a government, Mrs May has sought an arrangement that gives her some certainty and stability. The so-called “confidence and supply” deal effectively forestalls any attempt to bring down her administration.
But while this is constitutionally proper, there are wider consequences that could harm the Government in the long run. All matters not covered by the agreement will be dealt with on a case by case basis, always raising the prospect of defeat for individual measures.
On top of a pledge not to end the pension triple lock or scrap universal pensioner benefits – neither of which was going to happen anyway – Northern Ireland will get an extra £1 billion over the next two years and greater flexibility over another £500 million already allocated. The knock-on effect on spending elsewhere in the UK could be considerable.
There is an argument that Mrs May should have governed without a deal, since the DUP would not have voted her down in case another election installed Jeremy Corbyn in No 10. Concern has also been voiced that it might affect the peace process in the province, a prospect the DUP has dismissed as scaremongering. But the power-sharing executive is suspended and a new arrangement needs to be agreed this week. It is to be hoped that this pact will hasten, not hinder, its return.