Voters haven’t forgotten the Tories’ appeal
The latest social attitudes survey shows a nation in tune with Euro-scepticism and Conservative values
For a close result this election has sparked some dramatic conclusions. Labour’s betterthan-expected performance risks going to some people’s heads. The party still lost, but that hasn’t stopped some from claiming we’re on the cusp of a popular economic revolution. Similarly, some Conservatives talk as if they don’t know the country any more, despite winning 42 per cent of the vote. They both would be well advised to read the latest fascinating findings from the Natcen British Social Attitudes survey, published today.
Yes, we do find important signs that voters are beginning to tire of austerity, which will buoy Labour leaders, but any claim that this election signifies that people want an economic revolution is far-flung. Support for more tax and spend is up since 2010, but it’s nowhere close to the highs reached at the dawn of New Labour in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In fact, there are currently nearly as many people saying don’t increase spending as there are saying do.
The Conservatives need to remember that the country has not been transformed overnight. Growing unease at austerity doesn’t necessarily bleed into all areas. Indeed, our findings show that people have not become any more liberal about dealing with the threats of crime or terrorism. On defence, record numbers want increased spending. Such security concerns should play to what are traditionally seen as Tory strengths.
Certainly on immigration both parties will struggle to get to a policy that carries the country. There is a gulf between the views of older schoolleavers and younger graduates about the economic benefits of immigration.
To win an election either party will likely need to carry good support in both groups but a middling policy in a big divide risks pleasing no one. The decision to leave the EU, however, has united us in our Euro-scepticism – now 75 per cent of us can be described as Euro-sceptic.
Moreover Tory “modernisation” on social issues was in tune with the times and will remain important. On personal and social issues, Britain is becoming more liberal, faster. On same-sex relationships, the attitude of older people is swiftly catching up with more liberal younger generations.
While we may be more socially liberal, however, we’re not softhearted. We are still a country that wants to see the rules obeyed, with most people united in taking a dim view of benefit fraud and tax evasion, even where “legal loopholes” are used. We are also becoming wearier of increased spending on pensions after years of constant growth in the state pension.
All of these are important shifts in our views, but none are dramatic. The challenge and opportunity for both parties is how they appeal to a public tiring with austerity but wanting a party strong on security, and bridge our big divide on immigration.
The result shows us that neither party has answered this. Little wonder, then, that some 56 per cent of people felt no party in the election represented them. Our findings should give both the Tories and Labour pause for thought on how they can win outright next time.
This golden opportunity is open to the party that can move the debate beyond our increasingly adversarial political climate – in which every vote is now frequently accompanied by torrents of abuse directed at the other side.
Too often today the automatic response to a fact-free cheap shot is to counter with a better one. This is a dangerous game we’re playing, one that debases the currency of our political debate and makes us all poorer. Nor has it been effective; as the tone has grown more strident, poll results have only grown tighter.
Voters, it turns out, are far more considered than those who represent them. We are changing our minds, but in considered ways. It would be good to see some of the voices in our public life follow suit and step back from cries of betrayal or dawning revolution. For our political leaders, improving our current angry national debate is central to building the kind of country they say they want. It is certainly central to winning.