This indulgent Tory infighting risks turning Brexit into a national disaster
Cabinet ministers must stop putting their own ambitions and grudges before the national interest
Humans like to think we are better than animals. Sometimes, though, observing beasts can tell us a lot about human behaviour. When, for example, a pack of dogs loses its leader, the hounds often descend into a power struggle, snarling and scrapping to test one another’s strength.
As it turns out, Cabinet ministers aren’t so different from dogs. With Theresa May humbled by the general election, the Cabinet is now in an open war with itself. It’s not a pretty sight. Ministers are sending out “friends” to brief against one another and accusing their colleagues of skulduggery on Sunday chat shows.
The conflict supposedly revolves around enormous policy differences between great and powerful rivals. The truth, though, is that the Government’s warring factions are not as far apart as they look. Their power struggle is about personalities, not policies, and it is threatening to turn Brexit into a disaster.
On the face of it, the ongoing disagreements about Brexit – soft or hard, fast or slow – look fundamental. The fight in Parliament, between die-hard Remainers and the rest, has an epic feel to it. But among ministers there is, in fact, a broad consensus. Hard-headed politicians, Remain and Leave, accept that Brexit must be implemented and they mostly agree that it should be done sensibly, with a reasonable transition period.
Both sides in this fight, from archbrexiteer David Davis to Remainerin-chief Philip Hammond, accept this reality. They both want the Brexit transition to be time-limited. They both want to negotiate a final deal with as low an exit fee as possible, conditional upon a free-trade agreement. They might disagree over the timeline and the trade-offs that Britain faces, but these outcomes will be determined by the negotiation in Brussels, not by theoretical arguments in Cabinet.
The Government’s divisions are spreading, however. Recently, a new fissure has opened up on fiscal policy. The fight centres on whether to loosen the purse strings for public sector pay. Mr Hammond, ever the fiscal hawk, says no. His rivals, led by Michael Gove, disagree.
But the difference, as with Brexit, isn’t as wide as it looks. Listen to the nuances on both sides, and you’ll hear the fiscal doves admit that they have little appetite for a massive spending splurge, while Mr Hammond admits there are certain recruitment problems in public services that must be addressed.
In other words, the Cabinet policy splits are not irresolvable. The more vicious row is about power and presentation: should the Tories adjust the pay cap quietly or ostentatiously? And, crucially, who gets to decide?
These fights, over Brexit and fiscal policy, needn’t tear the Government apart. Unfortunately, with the premiership seemingly up for grabs, ambitious ministers smell an opportunity. They are exaggerating their differences to set out their stalls and drum up support.
Meanwhile, on its two most important political battlefields, the Government is adrift. The legislation needed to implement Brexit faces threats from all sides, starting with the Repeal Bill, which will shift all our current laws on to British, rather than EU, foundations.
Even without a majority, an authoritative government might have railroaded its Bills through Parliament. Instead, the Cabinet has declared open season on itself. MPS are forming themselves into raiding parties, ready to attack the legislation with all sorts of amendments and obstructions. And this is only the first of many Bills.
If the situation in Parliament is bad, it is even worse in Brussels. A government without the command of its own Cabinet and MPS is in no position to strike highly contentious political agreements abroad. The Whitehall machinery seems to be in disarray. Its Brexit planning operation is so fragile that, according to the chief of the National Audit Office, it’s liable to “fall apart like a chocolate orange”. Our new EU ambassador hardly seems to be involved, having not even moved to Brussels for the job. And as their ministers tussle, civil servants are locked in turf wars or toiling away on policy that might be abandoned or altered as the Government’s strategy evolves.
The chaos means that our negotiating team cannot guarantee that its promises or demands will not shift or fall apart later. This is poison for a negotiation, substantially raising the risk that the talks will fall apart. If so, the public won’t easily forgive the Conservatives. It’s one thing for Brexit negotiations to collapse over a fundamentally irresolvable disagreement. It is quite another for them to fail because the Government is simply too incompetent and wracked with infighting.
None of this is necessary or inevitable. It has come about because Cabinet ministers are putting their own ambitions and grudges before the national interest. They should instead be playing a long game. Their electoral success is tied to that of Brexit, and that won’t be determined by a quick, sharp skirmish. It is a long, protracted battle and, with the EU’S own institutions evolving, a shrewd, well-run British government may well have opportunities to further its interests in the years ahead.
In order to get there, though, two things need to happen. The first is that the Conservatives must fill their leadership vacuum. Fighting dogs only quieten down once they establish definitively who is master and who is follower. Likewise, the Government will only regain stability through a leadership contest or a grand bargain between the major players that is supported by MPS.
After that, whoever is in charge needs to create a policy consensus by admitting that it wants a sensible transitional deal before it tackles longer-term matters, like developing our future immigration policy and building the infrastructure it requires. This would enable MPS of different stripes to rally behind a programme and create space for Parliament and the public to scrutinise the finer details of policy, heading off unnecessary rows like Britain’s Euratom withdrawal.
The Government is in a terrible mess of its own making. But it can be unmade. If it isn’t, voters will deliver a harsh verdict at the next election – and the Conservatives will roundly deserve it.