Why we prefer old wives’ tales to the science of weather
WHEN it comes to watching the weather, we have never had much time for experts. Indeed, a survey published by the Met Office claims that three in four of us are more likely to rely on so-called old wives’ tales to predict the weather in preference to actual science.
I am as guilty of it as anybody. The weather bulletins on the evening news may tell me it will be a fine day tomorrow, but only when I have cast my eye outside and seen the sun setting a deep blood red will I be fully convinced.
According to the survey, “red sky at night, shepherd’s delight” is believed by 83 per cent of people and for good reason – because it often comes true.
The same applies to studying whether pine cones have opened up to see if good weather is on its way (believed by 55 per cent of people). Pine cones tend to close up like clams in the wet while if the air is dry they will expand.
Other theories have rather less rigorous grounding: “rain before seven, fine by 11”, for example, or the insistence that cows lie down when it is about to rain. And yet still we afford them significance.
Often it is because these sayings have been passed down to us as children and have been rattling about our minds ever since.
But also this signifies to me the fact that the weather is something we feel, deep and visceral, within our bones.
We have evolved with the knowledge that whether it will rain or shine could be the difference between life and death – and so it takes more than a few fancy isobars and “super computers” for anybody to convince us we should listen.
Certainly I know far better than to ever attempt any actual forecasting on this page. Although, if I were to stick my neck out, you might want to pack a brolly this weekend.