Barbecue summer may yet be waiting in the jet stream
SO GOODBYE to all that, then. Summer 2017, for the short-term at least, appears to have vanished. The Duke of Edinburgh’s last official public engagement was a washout and just to get this weekend out of the way, expect plenty more rain where that came from. The reason for this stubborn sodden spell is, as ever, our old friend the jet stream: squatting like a toad over the wrong bit of the Atlantic sending squalls of wet weather our way.
Just to recap, for those whose geography lessons are a distant blur, the jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds which blows weather systems about the globe. The position of the jet stream dictates which weather patterns we receive.
When it heads north it tends to take low-pressure systems with it, meaning we are left to bathe in summer warmth. Or if it heads south, as it has done now, then summer quickly becomes a washout.
Finally, though, forecasters are beginning to find ways of understanding this capricious foe.
Last summer, researchers at the University of Sheffield published a paper which, they claimed, proved up to 35 per cent of the jet stream’s movements at this time of year could be accurately predicted.
The report’s findings suggest the latitude of the Atlantic jet stream in summer is influenced by several factors including sea surface temperatures, solar variability, and the extent of Arctic sea ice. Analysing those, they say, should allow for more efficient long-term forecasts.
But perhaps it is better that the jet stream remains a frustrating enigma? After all, it means that even in the most dreary of Augusts we can cling on to the hope that things may get better. Speaking of which, weather looks like it’s perking up towards the end of next week. A barbecue summer may yet await.