Brexit needs a vision as much as a plan
Not so long ago, the key debate around the Cabinet table was what Brexit should look like. Now the discussion is all about the transition period, and what it should look like. This is progress of a kind, though not necessarily the sort that those who voted to leave the European Union want to see. Many suspect that transition will become permanent, despite protestations from the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, and the International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, that it will end by the next election in 2022. Others worry that by creating a system that effectively shadows EU membership from outside, transition is laying the way for a final deal almost indistinguishable from what went before. And while ministers kick such crucial proposals around, what is the Prime Minister’s view?
We should learn more when she returns to her desk tomorrow. After more than three weeks off, she should be refreshed. And her presence is needed. For while it is good to see some detail on vital issues like customs and Ireland, the EU is responding with a dead bat. The key issue at stake for its team, predictably enough, is money. The reality is that, following an election in which the margin for shepherding Brexit legislation through Parliament has been significantly reduced, Britain’s negotiating position has been weakened. Therefore when Michel Barnier, the EU’S Brexit negotiator, demands that a “financial settlement” has to be concluded first, it may be that Whitehall is preparing to concede the point. If so, and a deal is on the cards, it would be best for some political preparation to be done for what may be the largest single piece of state expenditure since the banks were bailed out.
Ultimately, this means the case for Brexit must be made again. The best way of doing that is for the Government to define its vision of the future, to formulate where it hopes negotiations will end – not just how it can get them under way – and to make it clear that ultimately, if we are not satisfied, we are prepared to walk away with No Deal. There may be Cabinet unanimity that a transition deal is needed. But there seems no accord on what it is for: to smooth away Brexit cliff edges, or to kick the can down the road? It must be the former. That original question cannot be avoided. What should Brexit Britain look like? Instead of filling a vacuum, every Government move, every statement, must now fill a purpose – and fulfil Britain’s destiny.