Migration figures ‘far lower than thought’
Review into official data as exit checks find vast majority of foreign students go home
THE Home Office has ordered a review of Britain’s immigration figures after new exit checks at the borders found there may be fewer migrants in the country than previously thought.
The Government will reveal today that border checks introduced last year found that 97 per cent of non-eu international students left after finishing their studies.
It had been thought that tens of thousands of international students remained in the country illegally and the disclosure that the majority are leaving casts doubt on the reliability of the official immigration statistics.
The immigration figures are based on relatively small-scale passenger surveys at airports, even though immigration is one of the most politically sensitive points of debate, dominating recent election campaigns and the European Union referendum.
Officials suggest that the overall net migration figure, which stands at 248,000, could be reduced by tens of thousands after taking into account the new border checks.
It means that Theresa May could be much closer than previously thought to meeting her target of reducing net migration to less than 100,000 a year.
The revised figures would also give the Government significantly more flexibility as it leaves the European Union, with ministers expected to allow continued free movement for EU migrants in key sectors. The new figures are also expected to result in the Government abandoning or watering down restrictions on student visas.
A Whitehall source said: “Ministers have asked the Office for National Statistics to review the net migration figures in the wake of this new data. It means that the overall net migration figure could be significantly lower than previously thought.”
Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, will today launch a separate investigation into the impact of international students, including tuition fees and their contribution to economic growth.
Despite the potential reduction in the official figures, Nick Timothy, Mrs May’s former chief-of-staff, warns today that politicians must not be “squeamish” about the social problems caused by immigration.
Writing in The Daily Telegraph, he says: “Newcomers need to adopt our common laws, rules, norms and institutions: the things that make us British.
“Fortunately, most migrants want to do so. They want to contribute and become full and active members of our society. But the arrival of large numbers from vastly different cultures can make that harder to achieve.
“This is not an argument against immigration from different cultures. But if we are to absorb immigration in a way that maintains the values of our country – and the solidarity made possible by national identity and citizenship – then immigration needs to be controlled, and lower.” The Home Office will today publish details of new
exit checks that record details of travellers leaving and arriving at British borders. The checks, which cover last year, include statistics on the number of people who overstayed their visas.
Based on previous figures, the analysis suggests that around 3,300 people a year overstay their visas, much lower than estimates which suggest tens of thousands of students “vanish” after finishing studying for a degree.
By contrast, the Office for National Statistics uses a survey which interviews samples of travellers to estimate net migration levels. Officials and experts suggested that the approach was less accurate than the exit checks.
The Office for National Statistics is expected to announce a review as it publishes the latest net migration figures today.
Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London, said: “This confirms what many experts have long thought, that students are being over-counted in the net migration figures. We don’t yet know the scale of the disparity but it shows that the figures on net migration are not fit for the purposes of the Government’s target.
“There is a potential that the disparity is quite significant, it could well be tens of thousands.
“The time for a rethink of how we measure international migration is long overdue and it’s welcome that ONS are addressing this.”
The review by the Migration Advisory Committee will examine the impact of tuition fees and other spending by international students the economy, as well as the role they play in contributing to growth in local areas.
The review is also likely to intensify the debate around the net migration target. Ms Rudd and other senior ministers, including Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, and Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, have previously suggested that international students should be removed from the target. Mrs May has repeatedly rejected the requests.
Mrs Rudd said: “There is no limit to the number of genuine international students who can come to the UK to study and the fact that we remain the second most popular global destination for those seeking higher education is something to be proud of. We understand how important students from around the world are to our higher education sector, which is a key export for our country, and that’s why we want to have a robust and independent evidence base of their value and the impact they have.”
Brandon Lewis, the immigration minister, said: “We have always been clear that our commitment to reducing net migration to sustainable levels does not detract from our determination to attract international students from around the world.”