Shipping Forecast marks 150 years (and a few missteps)

THE Shipping Forecast celebrates 150 years of continual weather predictions today, but sailors be warned, statistics show one in seven gales is a false alarm.

The first gale warning was issued in 1859, but it was not until 1867 that warnings at sea were regularly issued.

At first, the forecast predicted around 75 per cent of strong winds correctly, but could only get the direction of gales correct about a third of the time. Today, the Met Office gets the wind direction correct 80 per cent of the time, but has a false alarm rate of around 15 per cent, meaning roughly one in seven storms will not happen.

Penny Tranter, a Met Office adviser, said: “The experience we have providing severe weather warnings for over 150 years is unprecedented.”