Base the migration debate on facts

This newspaper has long argued that whatever immigration policy one favours, it ought to be based on reliable data. And yet, until 2015, the number of those leaving Britain was estimated on the basis of the International Passenger Survey: an official with a clipboard interviewing a small number of people about their travel plans. Now that Whitehall has finally got its hands on some proper exit check data, the findings give pause for thought: the net migration figure might be tens of thousands lower than expected.

Part of the explanation is that, whereas it was once believed that foreign students generally stayed in the country after they completed their studies, the exit data shows that 97 per cent of them, in fact, go home. Critics say this renders the Government’s war on dubious colleges obsolete. The Government might counter that the problem was once very real and that its crackdown is precisely why the figure has dwindled.

But many higher education institutions and businesses are crying out for talent, which lends weight to the call to take students out of the Government’s migration target. There is a case for saying that people who come here to learn – especially if they are paying for it – are exactly the motivated, high-skilled migrants that Britain wants.

But how can anyone judge what is in the country’s best interests unless they know who is, and who isn’t, living in it? Brexit will give us full control over our borders once again – but that is all it will do. Once sovereignty has been restored, it is then up to politicians to argue either for open borders, closed borders or a pragmatic migration policy based upon economic need, which is probably where the popular consensus lies. The debate must be calm and rational. It must not be based on artificial targets.

The Tories have long insisted that they can reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, and discouraging fake foreign students was one way they tried. But as the net EU migration figure falls – perhaps due to Brexit, possibly because of the falling pound – the net non-eu figure has overtaken it, even though the Government has the power to cut the latter.

In other words, for too long the conversation has been driven by rhetoric with scant delivery. Voters want borders that are better managed, and better management begins with an honest discussion of the facts.