May fights on, but needs Brexit unity

Prime ministers are always vulnerable to the question: “How long do you intend to continue?” Margaret Thatcher arguably signed her own political death warrant in 1987 by indicating her desire to go “on and on” when her party, and especially senior colleagues anxious for the top job, wanted her out once she had completed 10 years in Downing Street. Tony Blair found the pressure from his obvious successor, Gordon Brown, conflicted with his own wish to continue.

And David Cameron discovered that a pledge not to serve a full term after the 2015 general election merely triggered interest in who might be the next leader. It is a hard question to answer without the risk of being seen as either a potential lame duck or stoking suspicion among rivals. Theresa May, fresh from her walking holiday in the Alps and currently in Japan on an official visit, gave a forthright response when asked whether she proposed to lead the Conservatives into the next general election. “Yes. I’m here for the long term.”

This emphatic – and repeated – assertion is calculated to reimpose her authority after the calamity of the June election, in which she lost her Commons majority. Certainly, a strong steer from the centre of government is needed after a summer when policy over Brexit appeared to be diverging from the principles set out earlier this year by Mrs May in her Lancaster House speech.

The Cabinet now seems to have united around the idea of an implementation period, after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019, concluding before the next election scheduled for 2022. Ministers are after a bespoke, frictionless trading and customs arrangement, though whether that will be acceptable to the EU is yet to be tested. Labour has recently committed to staying in the single market and the customs union for a transitional period.

Mrs May’s new-found determination to lead from the front needs to coincide with setting out a clear position agreed by the Cabinet and the party. When MPS return next week they will embark on the Second Reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill, the most important legislative measure to come before the Commons in recent times. Steering it through Parliament would be a mammoth task for a powerful government. For a minority administration relying on the DUP for its survival, it will require strong leadership and a fully functioning Prime Minister. Judging by her words in Japan, Mrs May is now ready to provide both.