Russia will be judged on actions, not words, now and in the future

Next week, as many as tens of thousands of Russian troops will mass on Nato’s borders as part of Zapad 2017 – a major Russian military exercise. The clue is in the name – “Zapad” is the Russian for “West”.

This is an exercise but it is clearly designed to test us. Given Russia’s recent behaviour we need to be vigilant. In the last decade, we’ve witnessed Russia’s intervention in Georgia and in Ukraine. We continue to see Russian involvement in Syria prolonging that dreadful civil war. We’ve had Russian pilots buzzing Nato planes and ships, defying international protocols. We have seen Russian interference in elections in the United States, in Montenegro, and elsewhere using social media, fake news and disinformation to undermine democracies.

Doubtless Russia will claim that it is Nato that has escalated tensions. But mass exercises of this kind are clearly designed to provoke us. And Russia will disguise the true numbers of forces involved, in breach of mandatory Organisation for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) rules.

This persistent breach of international obligations is typical of Russian behaviour. It stands in stark contrast to the open and transparent approach taken by Nato in inviting international observers to exercises such as Trident Juncture 2015.

Nato is a defensive alliance. We do not threaten. But since the Wales and Warsaw summits we have strengthened our defences to reflect the security challenges that we face. Four battle groups, one led by Britain, help protect the Baltic states and Poland. A very high readiness task force, again led by Britain this year, stands ready to back them up. Fighter aircraft including RAF Typhoons remain on Quick Reaction Alert across Europe. And Nato ships train and exercise in the Baltic and Black seas. So a mass Russian exercise won’t change our defensive posture. All these measures send a clear signal that an attack against one Nato ally will be treated as an attack against all.

Yet it does not have to be like this. Russia could choose to adopt a more transparent approach and engage in proper dialogue to avoid the misunderstandings and miscalculations that lead to escalation. At a time of grave global dangers, the risks are very real. In February, I set out the Government’s approach to Russia and emphasised that deterrence and dialogue go hand in hand. We need to understand Russia better and vice versa. Our senior military have been consistent in our aim of a stronger channel of dialogue with Russia.

The choice is Russia’s; it can change tack, curb reckless military activity, abide by OSCE rules, implement the Minsk agreements, and drop the relentless campaign of misinformation. If it does, then there is the potential for a better relationship. We keep channels of communication open, but we must judge Russia on its actions and not its words whether next week or beyond.

Until the Minsk agreements are implemented, it certainly can’t be business as usual. Exercising thousands of Russian troops near Nato’s borders is unnecessary provocation. But it won’t deter us from our commitment to Nato and obligations to our allies. Zapad or no Zapad, we must remain ever vigilant.