NHS: winter flu to be worst ever

Hospitals ordered to clear wards amid warnings that they can expect twice the usual number of cases

HOSPITALS have been given six weeks to empty their beds, amid fears that the NHS may be about to face the worst flu season in its history.

The head of the NHS, Simon Stevens, yesterday warned of a “great deal of work to be done” to ensure wards could cope with a possible doubling in cases.

Mr Stevens said scientists were currently re-examining vaccine stocks to address fears about how much protection the jabs offer. His warnings come after Australia’s worst flu season in at least 15 years, with two and a half times as many cases as last year.

The NHS is already under severe strain, amid warnings from regulators that hospitals are extremely crowded. Health officials have now urged hospitals to go much further than they have managed in previous years to empty as many beds as possible.

Mr Stevens has said there was a huge amount to do over the next six to eight weeks to ensure the health service can cope if pressures mount. He said Australia and New Zealand – which are just coming out of their winter – have had a “heavy flu season” with many hospitals struggling.

“The evidence is we are likely to have a more pressurised flu season this year,” he told the NHS Health and Care Expo in Manchester.

Last night, NHS sources said that hospitals will be told to empty thousands more beds, by discharging patients more quickly and raising the number treated in their own homes.

Every A&E department has been told to set up GP services to turn away the least serious cases. But NHS senior managers are concerned there is not enough slack in the system to cope with a surge in cases, describing the latest indications as “very worrying”. Mr Stevens said that the World Health Organisation was reviewing the vaccine used in the southern hemisphere amid concerns about its effectiveness.

A modified version is used in northern countries and although it is based on many of the prevalent southern flu strains, they can mutate. In 2015, a mismatch meant the NHS jab worked in just one in three cases. The poor protection rate contributed to the biggest spike in winter deaths since the Sixties.

Last night, health officials said it was too early to know how effective current vaccines would be, but urged all eligible people to take up free jabs.

Health service regulators have already warned that hospitals are extremely busy, with too many beds blocked for lack of social care.

In recent years, the NHS has reported growing waiting lists for winter hospital care, with some of the worst recorded last winter. However, for almost a decade it has escaped a heavy flu season. The last pandemic was in 2009.

Mr Stevens said hospitals had already made preparations, but efforts needed to be stepped up because “the pressures are going to be real”. He warned that “signs from the southern hemisphere winter have been that flu rates have been much higher and of a variety that puts the most pressure on the

old people’s services such as care homes”. And he warned of “much more pressure on GP services and hospitals”.

Almost 100,000 flu cases have been confirmed in labs in Australia, where the season started particularly early, and hit those over 80 and children aged five to nine particularly hard.

Mr Stevens said the main type of flu to cause a threat was the H3 strain. But he warned: “You get various sub types and you also get virological drift where the flu evolves during the season.”

When this happens, as in 2015, vaccines which would have been effective no longer offer the same protection.

He said: “We are reviewing the Australian and New Zealand experience, where hospitals have closed to new patients and reported very long waiting times.”

NHS chiefs have been asked to free up more than 2,000 beds, he said.

The NHS offers free flu jabs to all over 65s, pregnant women, young children, those with long-term conditions such as asthma and all frontline staff. Health officials attempt to amend the vaccine six months before autumn, based on early indications from the southern hemisphere, but past predictions have gone “horribly wrong” as the forecast has to be made so early.

Paul Cosford, the medical director of Public Health England said: “The strains of flu circulating in Australia this past winter have led to a significant increase in cases but it’s too early to know which will be the dominant strains of flu to circulate in England.

“It’s really important as many eligible people as possible get their jab which is the best way to protect everyone.”

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers said: “The unprecedented demand last winter meant the NHS was stretched up to, and in some places, beyond its limits. When there are few if any spare beds, and staff are working flat out, resilience to deal with spikes in demand in some local areas can quickly be compromised.”