Confusion and fear in Belarus at Russian war games ‘advance’
THE first day of joint war games between Russia and Belarus began in confusion yesterday, as the militaries of the two nations announced the Russians would be moving in opposite directions.
The defence ministry in Moscow said that units of the Russian first tank army were rushing towards Belarus – a statement swiftly denied by the Belarusian military, which insisted the Russian tanks were heading to bases in their own country.
The confusion served to exacerbate fears that the Zapad war games taking place largely in Belarus are a cover for a Russian assault, as happened before the annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Many have joked that the Russian forces – officially numbering 3,000 – might not withdraw at the end of the exercises, and analysts have speculated they could leave behind military equipment to cut down deployment time in case of conflict.
“Without question, all participants of the exercises will return to their permanent bases after the exercises, including the Russian units to the territory of the Russian Federation,” Vladimir Makarov, spokesman of the Belarusian defence ministry, told journalists. He said the war games “don’t hold any danger for Belarus, for neighbouring countries, for Ukraine”.
Yet while the exercises are designed to demonstrate Russia’s ability to fight Nato, they have also eroded Minsk’s claims to neutrality and alarmed its neighbours. On Thursday, Poland’s defence minister called Zapad a “serious threat” to regional security, and Ukraine has been holding its own “Unflinching Firmness” military manoeuvres this week.
Even before it started, Zapad had been rattling Nato and its allies.
Sweden is holding its largest military exercises in two decades, responding to a simulated attack from the direction of Russia, and US army tanks and fighting vehicles arrived in northern Poland on Monday as part of the ongoing Operation Atlantic Resolve exercises.
Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president who has long played Russia and the West off each other for aid, oil and political benefit, only reluctantly agreed to this year’s bi-annual joint exercises.
The Belarusian authorities said they had invited more than 80 observers from international organisations and nearby countries. The 12,700 troops officially participating – Western pundits have estimated up to 100,000 could actually be involved – fall under the threshold for broad international monitoring.
“Belarus has been trying to distance itself from Russia and establish neutrality in tensions between Russia and the West. These exercises ruin this,” said analyst Valery Karbalevich. “But Belarus can’t refuse because it would be very disloyal to Russia.”