Care home bed shortage will affect nine in 10 areas

Britain faces shortfall of 42,000 places within a decade as the pensioner population rises

NINE in 10 areas will have a shortage of care home beds within a decade, a watchdog has found.

Research by Which? indicates there will be 42,000 fewer care home beds than are needed, and that 87 per cent of areas will be short.

The shortfall is expected to rise from 9,807 next year to 18,832 in 2019 and 32,593 by 2021. The report assumes that all local authorities are not currently experiencing a serious shortfall of beds and estimates how this is likely to change over time based on care home closures or new places being added.

It suggests that next year 118 local authorities will already have fewer places than they need, with this figure growing to 128 in 2019 and to 130 out of 150 in 2022.

The watchdog compared current rates of provision with the level of demand expected in 2022, based on ONS population analysis. The population of people aged over 80 is likely to grow from 2.7 million this year, reaching three million by 2021 and almost 3.1 million in 2022. It said many families were already struggling to find a suitable place for a relative, leading to long waits in hospital or a move far away from home.

Data from the Care Quality Commission shows there are 407,000 beds in English care homes, which increased from 397,000 in 2012, a rise of 2.5 per cent. Over the next five years growth will slow to 2.1 per cent, meaning the total number is due to be 416,000 in 2022. Around 20 local authorities will experience an increase in beds of 10 per cent or more, and around the same number will lose 10 per cent or more, the analysis suggests.

Of the 14 areas which are expected to be short by 25 per cent or more, half are in London. However the research also highlights areas which are due to have a surplus. Bexley is estimated to have 26 per cent more places than demand is expected to require by 2022.

It can take five to seven years to plan, organise and open a new care home. Last year the Competition and Markets Authority launched a review into the care home sector to examine if companies were treating residents fairly.

In a report issued in June, the department said it was concerned that “short term funding pressures and uncertainty mean that the sector is not attracting investment”.

Alex Hayman, Which? managing director of public markets, said: “It is vital that the Competition and Markets Authority looks at the potentially huge local disparities in provision, which could reach crisis point if nothing is done.” Data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by Channel 5 News this year showed that 59 per cent of councils reported closures in 2016.

A Department of Health spokesman said: “High quality care isn’t just about care home beds – 61 per cent of people are cared for in their own home and since 2010 there has been a growth in home care agencies of more than 3,000 – a 53 per cent increase.

“We’ve given local authorities in England an extra £2billion boost over the next three years to maintain access for our growing ageing population and to put the social care sector on a sustainable footing for the future.”