Why commercial jet passengers are facing turbulent times ahead

COMMERCIAL airliners will be buffeted by up to three times more turbulence in future decades, warn experts.

As a result, the risk of mid-air injuries will rise and passengers can expect to spend more time belted in their seats due to rougher skies caused by climate change. On some popular routes for UK travellers, such as transatlantic flights, severe turbulence will increase by 180 per cent, while over Europe the rate is set to worsen by 160 per cent.

Scientists had already noticed that clear-air turbulence (CAT) was on the rise, but a study by Reading University is the first to come up with a comprehensive mathematical model predicting long-term global conditions.

It estimates that by 2050 the rate of in-flight injuries will have almost tripled in line with the increased incidence of turbulence. The research team called for better forecasting systems allowing cabin crew to get their passengers seated and belted-up in time. “Air turbulence is increasing across the globe, in all seasons and at multiple cruising altitudes,” said Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at Reading. “This problem will worsen as the climate continues to change.”

Global warming is increasing CAT by strengthening wind instabilities in the jet stream and making pockets of rough air stronger and more frequent.

Even severe turbulence is all but incapable of threatening the survival of a commercial aircraft, however, it can injure those on board. In June, 20 people were hurt, including broken bones and head wounds, when a China Eastern Airlines flight from Paris to southwest China struck heavy turbulence.

The overall number of casualties recorded globally each year is in the low hundreds. However, experts believe this relatively low figure is due to under-reporting of minor injuries.

Last month, Boeing announced it was preparing to test a new laser technology allowing pilots to detect CAT up to 10 miles away, although given the 550mph cruising speed of most passenger jets, this would only give about 60 seconds’ notice.

“Unless aviation meteorologists become better at forecasting patches of turbulence, passengers will face increased discomfort levels from inflight bumpiness and an increased risk of injury,” said Prof Williams.

Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the study predicted severe turbulence over North America will rise by 110 per cent from 2050, 90 per cent over the North Pacific, 60 per cent over Asia and South America and 50 per cent over Australia and Africa.