It’s not just Theresa May who is on a cliff edge – it is Britain too

It’s tempting to hope that the chaos in the Conservative Party will be limited to the Conservative Party. Isn’t this just a Tory spat – an internecine Westminster squabble which will soon blow over without affecting the rest of the country? Sadly not. Theresa May’s crisis is Britain’s crisis, because it could destroy our chances of securing a good Brexit deal.

First there is the inevitable impact on our negotiations. We’re up against the clock now, and if we can’t agree a broad destination with the EU by this December we may never get a deal at all. Diplomats and civil servants can be trusted to do their jobs (if not always neutrally), but every minute ministers and MPS spend Whatsapping their co-plotters is a minute they are distracted from this colossal task.

Second, Theresa May has now lost all authority in Brussels. EU leaders can’t rely on anything she says because she could be replaced any minute. Even if she stays, they fear any agreement with her could be abandoned at her party’s behest. Firing Boris Johnson would restore her authority abroad but finish her at home, so she is stuck between her party and the EU without the power to make promises to either.

Third, there is a danger that EU leaders will twist the knife to force Britain into a corner. It’s clear from previous attempts to browbeat us that they misjudge the scepticism of foreign influence which led many Britons to vote Leave in the first place. If they try to take advantage of Mrs May’s weakness they will catalyse public opposition and make no deal more likely. This would be against their own interests, but that hasn’t always stopped them before.

Finally there are risks from a new leader. He or she will be very tempted to court hard Brexiteers, who currently hold more sway in the party than Remainers, by adopting a more bellicose tone (for instance demanding to discuss our trade deal alongside our divorce). That might play well in the British press, but the Commission would at best simply frown and say it must go back to the 27 nations for a new mandate. That would take months which we don’t have, and again increase the chances of no deal.

There is a way out of all this. We could accept a “status quo” transition during which we stay inside the Single Market, obey EU courts, live with free movement, refrain from new trade deals and pay into the budget. The Tories would then be at leisure to resolve their disputes and rally behind a leader before negotiating a final Brexit deal to kick in after March 2021.

There was a brief moment after the referendum when the party might have bought this, but now it looks politically impossible. Old Remainers would have to promise not to exploit the situation to keep us in the Single Market forever. Brexiteers would have to believe them and accept EU rule for at least two more years. Until that happens this crisis will continue, both sides squabbling over the steering wheel as we swerve towards a cliff.