Brexit is becoming a hostage to fortune

If the Europeans are getting ready for the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn, so should Britain. We report today that EU officials are preparing themselves for a scenario in which it’s not a Tory government they have to negotiate with but a Labour one – a dystopian vision that would be bad for Brexit and bad for the country. What might seem at this moment like an internal Tory debate over the future of Theresa May could have long-term consequences. MPS and voters need to think those consequences through. Britain cannot afford socialism. The Conservative Government cannot afford to fail.

Cool heads might say that little has changed. Yes, the Prime Minister’s speech was an embarrassment, but most people have reacted with sympathy. And, yes, Mr Corbyn had a confident conference, but he’s still Mr Corbyn. After two eventful weeks, Yougov puts Labour on 42 per cent in the polls and the Tories on 40 per cent. The Tories, believe it or not, have actually gone up one point. But this doesn’t mean British politics has found equilibrium. It means it is stuck on a knife edge. The Tories still have a thin parliamentary majority cobbled together with the DUP. If there were an election, the result could still go either way.

Eurosceptics might ask: “So what? The negotiations will continue regardless of who leads the country.” But the very fact that the EU is thinking ahead to a change of government highlights how much Brexit is a hostage to fortune.

It was clear from the very start of negotiations that Britain wants to use talks to forge a free trade deal while the EU wants to squeeze some goodies out of us first. The British, being British, have generally been accommodating and practical. The Europeans have delayed and prevaricated and kicked up a stink in press conferences.

Now they will exploit Mrs May’s bad week and any backbench plotting to insist that they can’t even trust that the prime minister will be in office in a month’s time. It’s an old negotiating ploy: the reality is that the EU is in a considerably worse shape than Britain. Its economy is stagnating; the French, incredibly, have called for more integration to fix it. As for political stability, the Germans don’t have a government yet, the Dutch haven’t had one for several months and Catalonia is on the brink of a secession that would make Brexit look like a walk in the park.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the quality of British political leadership will make a difference in regard to the quality of Brexit. Under Mrs May, Britain has already made concessions to the EU and there is obvious dispute between ministers over the transition period and the settlement to follow. This isn’t a strong negotiating position. There must be clarity on Britain’s red lines. There must be clarity about the transition deal it is willing to sign. And there must be clarity about the kind of Britain to be built afterwards. Will we purchase access into the single market? Surrender legal sovereignty to smooth things along? Or cut the chord completely? Europe is watching and planning ahead. Even if British politicians talk down a hard Brexit, German businesses are preparing for one.

Britain needs a strong government to get the right Brexit. If the Tories collapse, Brexiteers should abandon any fantasies that Mr Corbyn could pick up the baton and do any better. His position on Europe is as concrete as jelly, his position on immigration or the European Court of Justice is as clear as mud. He wouldn’t allow a proper vote on Brexit at his conference for the very good reason that he – a Marxist Eurosceptic – is at odds with most of his party over it.

And even if Mr Corbyn was able to put together a novel governmental coalition of fanatics who love him and moderates who hate him, his domestic policies would doom the country. On top of any economic uncertainty caused by Brexit, he would add renationalisation and soaring taxes. Perhaps the most sobering news from his conference week was that the shadow chancellor is preparing for a run on the pound if Labour wins. Even the Left acknowledges that Corbynism isn’t just an oldfashioned, socialist moral crusade. It’s a kamikaze mission.

The success of Conservatism, the success of Brexit and the success of Britain are all entwined. That is why the next few days in Westminster are so important. It isn’t good enough to adopt the “muddling through” perspective – to cross one’s fingers and hope that Labour remains stuck around 42 per cent and Brexit will go OK and the Tories can pull it all off in the end. That is not how politics works. Governments constantly have to make the case for themselves and to contrast their vision with that of their opponents. That is why the Tory party has to pull itself together and do what it failed to do at the election and failed to do at the conference: restore its authority.

Catalonia is on the brink of a secession that would make Brexit look like a walk in the park

It isn’t good enough to cross one’s fingers and hope that Labour remains stuck around 42 per cent