Britain still has a strong hand to play
Theresa May’s Brexit statement in the Commons had one message – “I’m in charge” – and two audiences. It was aimed, obviously, at Tory MPS who might doubt that she has the desire or ability to continue as prime minister. But it was also directed at Brussels. The Europeans may conclude that, according to their schedule, there is little need for action. But if the negotiations go badly, they won’t only go badly for Britain. Europe’s economic and political situation could deteriorate quickly.
Britain needs to prepare for all outcomes. The white papers on customs and trade released by the UK yesterday were written with the “best scenario” in mind, that Britain leaves cleanly and then swiftly enters a relationship with Europe that maximises trade. But successful negotiations hinge on having a fallback option, and the possibility of “no deal” is something that the Government should both prepare for and speak of with confidence. Britain is a global trading nation; we will take the hit and move on. Many European businesses, however, are worried that they would never recover – so Michel Barnier needs to understand that intransigence over the divorce settlement, or any attempt to punish the UK, will backfire on those he is negotiating for.
Doubtless, Mr Barnier looks at Mrs May’s small majority and conference speech, and concludes that she is hanging onto power by her fingertips. Surely the Prime Minister is not in a position to play tough? The Europeans need to think long and hard about what life might be like if the negotiations go wrong, the Tory government falls and Jeremy Corbyn is propelled into Number 10. Suddenly they would have a Marxist on their doorstep, the kind of reckless populist many of the largely centre-right governments of Europe have been desperately fighting against within their own countries. Not only would Mr Corbyn’s policies damage Europe’s economic stability, at a time when EU politicians are openly warning about another crisis, but he could not even be counted on to fulfil Britain’s defence responsibilities. Is that really what Emmanuel Macron or Angela Merkel want?
Britain still has a strong hand to play and the Government should do so with confidence, offering the carrot of co-operation in one hand and the stick of no deal in the other. Europe, meanwhile, needs to consider carefully what kind of Britain it wants to be dealing with.