The key to a good bluff? Don’t say it’s a bluff

I’m no expert in poker, but I do know this. After you’ve raised the bet, you do not lean back beaming in your chair, show your hand to the next player along, and whisper, “Of course, I’m only pretending to have good cards! Look!”

Yet that, it seems, is the strategy being pursued by David Davis. Yesterday in the Commons, the Brexit Secretary made a peculiar admission.

It came after the umpteenth MP had expressed concern about the dangers of leaving the European Union without a deal.

“We are seeking to get a deal,” replied Mr Davis patiently. “That is by far and away the best option.”

That bit all sounded sensible enough. But then came the peculiar admission.

The “maintenance of the option of no deal”, Mr Davis explained, is for “negotiating reasons”.

For negotiating reasons. In other words: it’s a bluff. We don’t actually want it. We’re simply saying it to scare the EU into giving us what we want.

Mr Davis did not wink, or smirk, or tap the side of his nose. But he might as well have done.

Now, I’m not saying Mr Davis is wrong to attempt the bluff. But the thing about attempting a bluff is: you can’t go admitting that it’s a bluff.

Because if you admit that the bluff is a bluff, the bluff is rather less likely to work. The success of a bluff, on the whole, depends on your opponent believing that it’s not a bluff.

Of course, had Mr Davis been talking in private with a trusted colleague, his bluff could have remained a bluff. The problem, however, was that he was talking at the dispatch box of the House of Commons – in the presence of countless MPS, reporters, and television cameras.

For Mr Davis’s bluff to succeed, therefore, he is relying on everyone in the European Union either a) having no access to the internet, or b) not understanding a word of English.

“What did Mr Davis say to MPS today, Jean-claude?”

“I’m not sure, Michel. My English – like the English of everyone else on mainland Europe – is extremely bad. But, from what I could make out, I think Mr Davis told MPS that the United Kingdom Government is genuinely up for leaving without a deal, and isn’t just pretending for negotiating reasons.”

“But hang on, Jean-claude. If the United Kingdom Government is, as Mr Davis makes clear, genuinely up for leaving without a deal, wouldn’t it already have started building the necessary infrastructure – for example, new customs facilities at ports – to support trading after ‘no deal’?”

“Oh, I’m sure we can take it as read that the building work is close to completion. Sadly, there is no way for us simply to pop over to Dover and see for ourselves.

“Still, I have no doubt that the United Kingdom Government’s preparations for ‘no deal’ commenced long ago. Don’t forget: this definitely isn’t a bluff.”