Stability won’t come easily to Saudi Arabia

There are many obstacles to the Crown Prince’s autocratic revolution in the name of reform

After a weekend of arrests and sweeping anti-corruption purges it’s clear that a revolution is taking place in Saudi Arabia. It is not an Army revolt, nor a popular uprising, but palace intrigue of the most Byzantine sort – a move against the elite, by the elite. With former ministers, royal family members, and business leaders being rounded up and detained, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has taken a giant leap toward becoming de facto leader of his country.

There is an irony in his revolution. It is done in the name of reform, yet its methods are autocratic. And in contrast to previous rulers who traditionally preferred to take baby steps, Prince Mohammed is in a hurry, with little time for anybody who appears to stand in the way of his ambitious programme for change.

There is much merit to this urgency. Saudi Arabia’s bureaucracy is sclerotic at best, and riven with corruption and nepotism. Still heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues to fuel a bloated public sector, the country has been headed for economic disaster. Indeed last year the Crown Prince’s economic advisers openly stated that the kingdom would run out of money as early as 2018. Only two options were available: spending cuts and deep structural economic reforms. The Crown Prince chose to do both.

Certainly, cuts have already affected the Saudi economy and dented confidence in the consumer market in particular. Purchasing power has dropped for the first time since the global economic crash of 2007, and GDP growth has shrunk from 4.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent in the past year. Saudis have for the most part borne the austerity measures with good grace, but they have not been popular.

For, despite his great power, even the Crown Prince is not immune to the realities of popular politics. He has understood that you cannot ask people to go through austerity while tolerating widespread corruption among the country’s elite. To continue to do so would be a sure-fire way of inviting public discontent, affecting the stability of the kingdom and even the royal House of Saud itself.

Hence the purges; which are to a great extent acts of pure populism – a few fat cats thrown to the fire should mean a few more months of political breathing space. And by appearing to do something about those who feed off the state and its inefficiencies, Prince Mohammed can present himself as understanding the pain of the ordinary Saudi, doing everything in his power to address their concerns. The royal ruler has descended from his throne and wanders among his people – or at least this is how loyal media outlets have portrayed the move, and how the Crown Prince would like to be seen.

But it is not just the people he has to keep an eye on. There are the alternate power bases in the country (notably conservative clerics), as well as disgruntled members of his own family. In the last 12 months, the Crown Prince has been ruthless pushing anybody standing in his way.

Two previous Crown Princes – Mohammed’s uncle, Prince Muqrin, and his cousin, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef – have been unceremoniously removed to make way for him. Meanwhile, troublesome clerics who opposed his religious reforms and positions on sensitive foreign policy issues like the kingdom’s recent spat with Qatar have been imprisoned.

Jail may not look like the Scrubs: many business leaders and princelings are being held in Riyadh’s Ritz-carlton hotel, possibly the most luxurious cell in modern history. But what will surely follow soon is an actual coronation for a Crown Prince who already acts with the authority of a king. Then, in his own mind at least, he can set about realising his ambitious agenda, reforming Saudi Arabia as he and his team of advisers see fit.

But the truth is that if and when he does take the crown, the task ahead is gargantuan. Someone needs to give it a go, but domestic pressure from the Saudi street, and rivals inside their gilded cage will not melt away.

The Crown Prince’s power may be immense. But so are the risks. Longterm, this could provide stability for one of the Middle East’s most influential nations. Short-term however, it could be a bumpy ride.