Prince’s bold gamble

Western capitals appear to have been caught off-guard by the startling events that took place at the weekend in Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman moved to consolidate his power just months after ousting his cousin as the next ruler of the Desert Kingdom. Dozens of wealthy princes and officials were arrested and are under guard, albeit in the luxurious surroundings of a Riyadh hotel.

Crown Prince Mohammed says he is acting against corruption and can only do so by removing those responsible from office. To us it looks like a purge, though it is never wise to judge a tribalbased autocracy by western standards. What matters in London, Washington, Paris and elsewhere is whether it causes further instability in an already volatile region.

Sunni Saudi Arabia fears the expansionism of Shia Iran, with which it is fighting a proxy war in Yemen. Any direct clash would be a disaster for the West as well as the Middle East. Since a weak Saudi Arabia would make that more likely, Prince Mohammed is anxious to build up his country’s defences, while preparing for when the oil runs dry by diversifying into other areas. Furthermore, he has previously pledged to bear down on Islamist extremism amid accusations that Saudi money is helping export fundamentalism around the world – something the West is anxious to reverse.

The Crown Prince has taken a bold gamble; some will say it is risky and headstrong. However, if he is seriously intent on driving change in a country that has been culturally and politically ossified for decades, then the past few days will come to be seen as a watershed moment in recent Middle Eastern history.