Mugabe’s fall gives Zimbabwe a chance

Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign as leader of Zimbabwe was reaching its inevitable end by dint of his mortality. In the event, however, it came more swiftly than many expected. The power struggle inside Zimbabwe over who would succeed the 93-year-old president resolved itself in the early hours of yesterday with his detention and that of his wife. Known as “Gucci Grace” for her penchant for shopping, it was Mrs Mugabe’s efforts to establish herself as the heir apparent that proved her undoing. There were unconfirmed reports that she may have fled the country; but whatever her fate she now seems to be out of the picture.

The dismissal this month of vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa was the first indication that the bitter feuding inside the ruling Zanu-pf party was about to come to a head. Arguably, the action of the military in supporting the vicepresident was less a coup d’etat than a settlement of internal factionalism. It is now expected that Mr Mnangagwa will take over as a transition leader, though Mr Mugabe may yet stay on as a figurehead. The military certainly needs to play a low-key role.

There is a great deal of international goodwill towards Zimbabwe which Mr Mugabe squandered in recent decades, impoverishing his country through a programme of land expropriation and a consequential exodus of middle-class professionals. Western investment has virtually dried up and will only return if there is economic modernisation, political reform and an end to corruption. The best outcome would be the government of national unity proposed by the opposition MDC but this will require the support of all the key groupings in Zimbabwe, including the war veterans who still support Mr Mugabe.

It will also require careful diplomacy and even outside financial help. The UK, with its colonial history, has an obligation in the region but must tread carefully for that very reason. The biggest overseas player is China, which will welcome an end to the instability caused by in-fighting. Beijing’s influence is likely to be pragmatic when it comes to economic and agrarian reforms but indifferent on democracy. The removal of Mugabe may or may not presage a new democratic dawn in Zimbabwe; but it opens the way to the reconstruction of a country that once was prosperous and can be again.