Ireland’s issues over Brexit do not justify its border brinkmanship

Our future relationship with the EU is a difficult question, but splintering the UK is not the answer

Few developments in recent years have been as unambiguously positive as the dramatic improvement in relations between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. In 2011 I was privileged to accompany the Queen on her state visit to Dublin. It was four days I will never forget, producing an enthusiasm and outpouring of friendship most people never thought they would live to see.

But now we have a very big problem. The British and Irish governments seem to be on a collision course ahead of the crucial EU summit on Dec 14, with potentially disastrous consequences for the last chance to manage Brexit at all smoothly and for relations between the two countries. This month the EU, including Ireland, has started to argue that Northern Ireland should remain in the EU customs union and single market in order to maintain a completely open border. Doing so would draw a new economic border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

The solution to this requires understanding and patience on both sides of the Irish Sea, qualities that brought about the Good Friday Agreement and all the other gains of the last 20 years. In Britain, whether we voted Leave or Remain, we have to admit that our decision to leave the EU does create serious problems for Ireland. Brexit will deprive Ireland of her biggest ally in Europe on liberal trade policies and respect for national sovereignty on taxation. It is bound to throw up barriers to trading with and through us, their main trading partner and physical route to the Continent.

Worryingly, it also complicates immensely the relationship between the Republic and Northern Ireland. Their being in the EU together has helped with sharing public services, cross-border reconciliation projects, and boosting trade. So it is perfectly reasonable for the government and people of the Irish Republic to feel pretty cross about the situation they are landed in by Brexit, and that far too little attention was given to this during our referendum campaign.

Unfortunately, however, the Irish government is now threatening – at least implicitly – to do something unreasonable: to prevent any deal that doesn’t keep Northern Ireland within the customs union and single market. Both their prime minister and foreign minister have threatened to torpedo what is otherwise set to be a breakthrough in widening the UK-EU talks two weeks from now.

Complicating matters is Ireland’s political crisis, which could produce the fall of the minority government this week. But even if that happens, the incumbent ministers will still be dealing with this issue, and they should appreciate a key rule of negotiating successfully: do not place your counterpart in an impossible position. Making such a radical demand of the UK Government is doing exactly that. It is not something that I could imagine either this or any previous government, Labour or Conservative, being able to agree to. This is partly because it would never be acceptable to the Unionist community in Northern Ireland, since it would damage the UK’S constitutional and economic integrity.

It would be a mistake for anyone in Dublin to think that Theresa May’s dependence on the DUP is the main barrier to the huge concession they are seeking. Splintering the UK is asking too much of Conservatives and many others in Britain. It would be deeply damaging to Northern Ireland’s economy, given that it does four times as much trade with the rest of the UK as it does with the Republic. Furthermore, it is genuinely difficult for British negotiators to come up with the complete answer to how to maintain an open border when the future trade and customs relationship between the UK and the EU has not been decided.

Just as we British must understand Irish concerns, so it is vital that the impossibility of what they appear to be seeking is understood in Dublin. If Ireland effectively vetoes an agreement next month it would be a very grave miscalculation since it would not produce a British climb down at a later stage. It would, however, massively increase the chances of a “hard” Brexit of which the Irish economy would be a principal casualty. Justifiably complaining that the UK did not think through all the consequences when we voted to leave the EU would not excuse Irish leaders of failing to think through the consequences of their response.

So what on earth is the way out of this? First, it is important for all sides to remember that their predecessors achieved the huge improvement in Uk-irish relations through good will and readiness to compromise. Those qualities are needed again now to drain the situation of drama and conflict.

Second, everyone should be quite clear that the circumstances of Northern Ireland are unique and require specific and detailed solutions. The British Government should make clear that it acknowledges that and is willing to find them. It should be possible to find the words that would constitute a written guarantee to uphold that commitment.

Any solution must flow from the Good Friday Agreement and what is needed to uphold it in its entirety. But sweeping solutions are unlikely to deliver that: what is required is a granular matching of problem with solution, in the light of what matters in practice on the island of Ireland. That will entail some flexibility from the UK, but also from the EU on how rigidly it regards its rules – and given what is at stake here, those with a sense of responsibility in the EU should be ready for that.

Third, the other EU member states should consider it is not in anyone’s interests to force the UK into a “no deal” Brexit by a demand to compromise its constitutional and economic integrity. Solving problems over Northern Ireland requires painstaking work and diplomacy, not binary solutions and arbitrary deadlines. The Good Friday Agreement spoke of respecting the ethos, identity and aspirations of the Nationalist minority and the Unionist majority, and that has to continue to be the case.

A failure in December carries major risks for everyone. It would be a tragedy if old wounds were reopened between the UK and the Republic and within Northern Ireland. From both governments, and the EU negotiators, now is a time for statesmanship, not brinkmanship.