Nick Timothy
We were always going to pay the Brexit bill
Iam delighted that you buy The Daily Telegraph, but next week make sure you buy the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung too. Because on Monday, Theresa May will lunch with Jeanclaude Juncker, and when they dined together previously, a disparaging account of their conversation was leaked to the German newspaper, allegedly via Juncker’s chief of staff, Martin Selmayr.
The Prime Minister’s objective is to ensure that at the next European Council meeting, in two weeks, the EU will agree that “sufficient progress” has been made so the Brexit talks can move from phase one, covering our departure, to phase two, covering our future relationship with Europe.
She is making good progress in removing the blockages. The first is Britain’s exit payment. If reports are true that officials have agreed a formula for calculating Britain’s legal liabilities, this will constitute sufficient progress on the issue that matters most to the 27 remaining member states. If the liabilities amount to between £40 and £60 billion, they will be more than Britain’s opening offer, less than the EU’S early demands, and approximately where we would always end up.
The second blockage is about the role of the European Court of Justice in guaranteeing the rights of the three million EU nationals who came to Britain under free movement rules. Without such a role for the ECJ, the Commission believes that the court will veto the Brexit treaty when it comes to ratification. Britain’s reported suggestion – that the Supreme Court might refer cases to the ECJ when matters of European law are unclear – would avoid the risk of individual citizens petitioning the European Court, limit its role, and stop it undermining Britain’s ability to control future immigration.
The biggest problem, however, is the status of the Irish border, and here the negotiating parties are in a Catch-22 situation. The EU says we need solutions for the border before the second phase of talks can begin, but the problem cannot be resolved until talks move on to the future relationship. Until recently there was a growing appreciation in Europe of this Catch-22 problem. But the recent demands made by the Irish Government, and notably its threat to veto a move to phase two of Brexit talks without a written guarantee that there will be no hard border between Ulster and the Republic, are now the most dangerous obstacle to a sensible agreement.
To be fair, Irish anxiety is reasonable. They have no desire to leave the EU, and Brexit is a huge risk for them – a risk they did not choose to take. Britain needs to be sensitive to these facts and focus on finding practical solutions. That is why Theresa May has said, ever since the referendum, that she is determined to avoid a hard border.
But Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, seems to be trying to force the UK into positions that are understandably unacceptable to London: that the UK should remain a member of the customs union, or that Northern Ireland should do so, thereby creating an internal border within the United Kingdom.
There is a way of breaking the impasse, but it requires the same values that took the UK and Republic through the Northern Ireland peace process: trust, patience and pragmatism. First, Westminster needs to devolve more powers to Ulster, so Stormont can agree bespoke arrangements with the Republic. Second, there will need to be more all-ireland governance agreements of the kind that exist on agriculture and energy. Third, there will need to be technological solutions to performing customs checks. And fourth, we will probably need to tolerate an increase in petty cross-border smuggling.
We tend not to use this kind of language, and few in Britain are aware that this is the case, but the Good Friday Agreement created a form of sovereignty for Northern Ireland shared between Unionists and Nationalists. The solution to the border must recognise that fact and avoid disturbing the delicate equilibrium in Ulster. That means neither group can be pushed too far.
Having taken a bold stance, Varadkar may find it difficult to back down. Some believe he is bluffing, and trying to force Britain into concessions, but it is more likely that a young and inexperienced leader, under domestic political pressure, is miscalculating: European diplomats tell me that Varadkar’s recent ultimatum took even Brussels by surprise.
The Europeans need to make clear to Ireland that the surest way to a hard border is a no-deal Brexit, which is precisely what, with its hardline stance, the Irish are risking. And if we think the consequences are bad for Britain, they will be ruinous for the Republic: Varadkar must know this. At the same time, Britain needs to make commitments that will allow the Taoiseach to say he has won important concessions, so he can support the talks moving forwards. The Europeans and the British want to move to phase two: Varadkar now needs to avoid a terrible miscalculation.