The Prime Minister’s hopes for a ‘bespoke Brexit’ have evaporated

Political reality rules out both a no deal and a unique one. Only a general election can change that

In my mind’s eye, I can see him now: Ian Paisley in front of Belfast City Hall in November 1985 bellowing defiance at the British state. The crowd – one of the largest ever seen in the UK – had gathered to protest at the signing of the Anglo-irish Agreement at Hillsborough Castle a few days earlier.

“Mrs Thatcher tells us that the Republic must have some say in our province,” shouted Paisley, the authentic voice of implacable Ulster loyalism. “We say never, never, never.” For good measure an effigy of Margaret Thatcher was burned; and all the Unionist MPS in the province resigned their seats at Westminster.

If Theresa May was unaware of the likely reaction of the Democratic Unionist Party, which Paisley founded, to any suggestion that Northern Ireland would be treated differently from the rest of the UK, she has a very poor grasp of history.

It is the prerogative of a Prime Minister to sign international treaties and negotiate with foreign governments. In 1985, Mrs Thatcher knew that the Unionists would react badly to her dealings with Dublin, but she was not so beholden to them that she was unable to carry out her government’s policy without their permission.

Things were a bit more problematic for John Major in 1995, when the draft Framework Agreement with Dublin paving the way for a political settlement was leaked at a time when he was under huge pressure in his own party over Europe.

The Unionists objected to a proposed joint north-south Irish authority that would have strong executive powers in certain areas and would deal directly with the European Union. With his power in Parliament waning, Major did not have the authority his predecessor had just to push ahead. For a while the process stalled and the ceasefire ended.

So when the DUP, which holds the balance of power at Westminster, was presented with a proposal for breaking the Brexit logjam that raised the prospect of a schism between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, there was only going to be one response: never, never, never.

Except, of course, they never really mean never. Paisley ended up as First Minister in a devolved government established as part of an agreement he vowed to fight to the death. The irony is that the Unionists object to anything that smacks of constitutional exceptionalism when they are already treated differently from the rest of the UK because Ireland does have a say in how the province is governed.

The history of the island and navigating its sectarian politics have turned sophistry into an art form. Saying one thing but meaning another has been the only way to make any progress; so it is highly probable that a form of words will be devised that will allow Mrs May to get her deal on December 14 to move to the next stage of Brexit talks while assuaging DUP concerns about being separated from the UK. But what is extraordinary is that this was not done before the Prime Minister had to endure the very public humiliation we witnessed in Brussels on Monday. What on earth were her officials in No 10, who are now running the whole process, doing to let such a thing happen?

International agreements are not written by the Prime Minister on the back of an envelope in a darkened room. There are processes, committees, drafts, discussions, rewritings, amendments and final copies to be signed off. How is it possible that the very party that would be most opposed to what was being suggested – and which is propping up Mrs May in parliament to boot – was not squared beforehand? It is incompetence of epic proportions. What could have been a great national story is turning into an indignity that no leader should countenance.

It may well be possible to cobble something together that will bring the DUP back on board, though in the long run this will only be achievable by promising that the UK as a whole will stay in the single market and the customs union in all but name, which is clearly where we are now headed. Mrs May cannot say this openly because she not only ruled it out but we have not yet talked to the EU about it, since they have refused to let us.

Without a Commons majority, Mrs May is unable to pursue the sort of bespoke, red-line Brexit she set out to achieve before the general election; but nor can she threaten to take Britain out of the EU without a deal because she will not get that through Parliament. Those who think we will drop out come what may in March 2019 need to consider the politics of trying to bring that about.

Faced with the reality of her position, Mrs May should try to produce a British Brexit that everyone can sign up to, whether they are Remainers, Leavers, Scot Nats or Ulster Unionists.

In the end, it is the Prime Minister’s job to govern for the country as a whole and not leave a legacy of division and acrimony. She should have sought cross-party collaboration after she became Prime Minister and certainly after losing her a majority in June. Labour fought that election committed to honouring the referendum result and Parliament had agreed by a large majority to trigger Article 50. A national leader would have tried to find common ground on her own terms, and not be forced on to it by events.

But Mrs May has been trapped by the unilateral interpretation that she placed on the referendum result when she took over from David Cameron, ruling out staying in the single market or the customs union, and therefore the option of an off-the-shelf membership of the European Free Trade Association (Efta).

Brexiteers may consider it unacceptable that we could end up paying £50billion for a pale imitation of what we already have, with the European Court still playing a role; and they are right. But the alternative of no deal is no longer politically feasible, or not without another general election, which is increasingly likely. What is acceptable and what is deliverable rarely coincide.

Bismarck called politics the art of the possible but, unfortunately, Mrs May is not its most adept practitioner, and that’s putting it charitably. If she cannot even bring the DUP with her, what chance has she got of convincing the rest of the country?