This rebellion reminds the PM that Leaving is about Parliament too

A great many powers are being repatriated from Brussels and MPS are keen to have a say in their use

As a handful of Tory rebels shared a bottle of wine in the Pugin Room after defeating the government over Brexit on Wednesday night, the real party was being held at the other end of the parliamentary estate. After the vote, some Labour MPS glided back to Jeremy Corbyn’s office for an early Christmas celebration that lasted well into the night; there were reports of them toasting their new Tory accomplices.

And this is why so many Conservatives have been so angry: they sense not just rebellion but outright betrayal.

As happens so often in politics, tempers are running higher because the stakes are now lower. Brexit is not in danger – in fact, it has never looked more secure. And this is precisely why the Tories feel more at liberty to start fighting.

As MPS told me after the rebellion: “The Brexit deal is pretty safe, so we can now afford to murder each other.” So far, this part of the plan is going rather well.

Prime Minister Theresa May did not much mind her parliamentary defeat on Wednesday. Those who spoke to her afterwards said she was relaxed and joking that it was the least of the problems she has had to deal with this year.

At lunchtime today, the European Council will say that the first – and, politically, the toughest – stage of the Brexit talks are complete. It was, in the end, all about money. We offered the equivalent of about four years’ membership fees and they accepted. Complicated trade talks will soon start, but there is now not much chance of negotiations collapsing entirely. It is not too great an exaggeration to say that the Brexit deal is mostly done and the panic over.

And Parliament? Its full permission for a Brexit has already been given and no other vote is required. That is what the fuss with the Supreme Court was all about.

The vote for Article 50 was the big one, and it serves to eject the United Kingdom from the European Union by March 29 2019 whether or not there is a deal – and whether or not Parliament likes it.

What has changed, now, is that MPS have made sure they will have the chance to vote on whether to approve whatever deal the Prime Minister negotiates – but it is all a bit tokenistic. If they do not approve, then Britain leaves with no deal at all.

You can see why MPS are feeling a little aggrieved about all this. What they think about leaving the EU does not really matter anymore, which is why they were fighting to get back in the conversation. And revelling in the new roles that Brexit has allotted to them.

Once, it was hard to think of a more obedient minister than Nicky Morgan or a more establishment figure than Dominic Grieve – yet both are now playing at being rebels, and quite enjoying it.

On the other side we have Bernard Jenkin talking about the need for discipline and loyalty, to the amazement of the MPS who remember him collecting signatures calling for David Cameron’s resignation just after the near-miraculous Tory majority of 2015.

Not so long ago, Nadine Dorries would denounce Mr Cameron as an “arrogant posh boy”; now, she is calling for the deselection of MPS who undermine the Prime Minister.

The punch-up has been a long time in coming. A few weeks ago, this newspaper identified the new Tory mutineers, and we can expect to hear quite a lot from them in the next few weeks. But how much damage might they really do?

Only two, Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry, are genuinely out to thwart Brexit but lack the opportunity to do so. Most have no coherent agenda at all, they just think they ought to make life difficult for the government. They are picking their battles – and, I have to admit, making some fairly decent arguments in the process.

A great many powers are being repatriated from Brussels and it’s not entirely clear that the Government knows what to do with them.

One of the rebels’ main themes is that Parliament is needed to scrutinise these new powers. For example: bad, fractured regulation was one of the main causes of the financial crash of 2007. If Brexit ends up creating a financial regulatory monster, with the wrong powers in the wrong hands, then the conditions for the next crash will be set.

With this in mind, the Tory rebels can argue that standing up to the Government is not about subverting Brexit, but rather about securing the best kind of Brexit.

Some of the rebels say that their real concern is Jeremy Corbyn. It’s one thing allowing the Conservative Government to acquire huge, unchecked powers as a result of Brexit. But what happens if Labour ends up in charge?

John Mcdonnell would be delighted if, as Chancellor, he had powers to direct a massive post-brexit financial regulator without anyone in parliament to hold him back. So in most cases, this is seen as a kind of loyal mutiny: making sure that Brexit does not deform British government.

Much of the rebellion is just about putting down a marker, to remind the Government that it needs to keep being afraid of Parliament. So the more trivial the law, the more likely the rebellion. When there’s a pointless, symbolic amendment – such as asking Parliament to set an exact date for Brexit – then the Government might well lose the vote. But the important Brexit votes are all going rather well. The Government has been winning them by a majority of about 20 seats, twice its actual majority.

So we are not, really, looking at a dirty-dozen Tories hell-bent on stopping both Brexit and the Prime Minister. There are maybe one or two in that camp, a number so low that Mrs May should take it as an insult: Mr Cameron always had at least a dozen Tories dedicated to his destruction.

But, in most cases, MPS are still working out when to obey, when to rebel and how best to shape the great many powers now on their way back to Westminster. It will be raucous, unedifying at times, and involve much more parliamentary drama – but this is precisely what Brexit is all about.