We cannot afford any more missteps
For Theresa May, yesterday’s EU summit in Brussels represented something of a triumph. After many months of tortuous preparation, discussion, negotiation – and no small amount of compromise – the Prime Minister was rewarded with Brussels’ agreement that the Brexit process can now move on to trade. For Britain this next phase is crucial because it will set the template for our future prospects rather than simply cut the ties to our past EU membership. Instead of totting up the sum of this country’s “exit bill”, we will be marking out the form and extent of our new independence.
The stakes, then, are no lower. Indeed, at yesterday’s summit many key figures were at pains to point out that negotiations will actually get harder, and “significantly harder” at that. For a British Prime Minister who has undoubtedly found the past political year deeply bruising, that might sound like a threat. And for all the compliments paid to Mrs May in Brussels yesterday – “tough, smart and polite” – no one should be in any doubt that the EU will continue to exploit every twist and turn to its advantage. As much is clear from the concessions it has already extracted on money and oversight by the European Court of Justice. That is why clearing this hurdle in reality represents only a qualified triumph for the Prime Minister: much has already been given up, and the EU will certainly be back, demanding more.
Take the transition period. Though it is clear that it is to neither side’s advantage to proceed over a regulatory “cliff edge” while we thrash out a trade deal, the two transition years between 2019 and 2021 are themselves now shaping up to be a major battlefield. The EU is already insisting that Britain signs up, in effect, to all EU rules in this time. Britain will want to push back. But in doing so we will find ourselves talking, once again, about the manner of our departure, not the nature of our relationship once we have left.
It is imperative that we settle these transition details quickly in 2018, because attention should really be focused on framing the terms of our lasting trade deal. Until that is done, the suspicion will endure that the EU, possibly in tandem with Remain plotters, will conspire to push Britain down the blind alley of a bad deal or no deal – all in the hope of forcing a Parliamentary rethink on Brexit itself. That, admittedly, seems a more remote possibility now that Mrs May has hauled the process along this far. But the counter revolution aries have by no means disappeared, and Tory rebels this week gave a potent demonstration of how fragile Brexit can be made to seem under a minority government.
Of course, the best way of reaching a satisfactory destination is to know what that destination is. Cabinet will finally meet next week to discuss what kind of deal we should ultimately aim for. The answer is clear: it must be bold and free enough to allow Britain to secure meaningful trade deals independent of the EU. It is remarkable that the Cabinet has not yet settled this. But it is also a reflection of Mrs May’s obduracy – once she has decided on a course of action she sticks to it, come hell or high water. It was always her plan to get through phase one, then consult her colleagues. Fine. But her ability to find the line between leadership and inflexibility may determine how well Brexit goes for Britain in 2018.
Looking back on 2017, she no doubt harbours mixed emotions. It has been a rollercoaster year, which began on a positive note with her well-received speech at Lancaster House, setting out the country’s negotiating priorities. Only a few days later, however, the Supreme Court ruled that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50. But this apparent setback was then surmounted with ease when the House did so by a huge majority in March. Yet this picture changed again, and irrevocably, in June.
The general election proved the biggest political drama of a year not short on theatrics. A gravely weakened Prime Minister found that concessions made in her second big EU speech – this time in Florence – were not enough. And when a bigger cheque was written, the Irish border threatened to derail the process. Given where she was six months ago, Mrs May will probably be content with where she finds herself today. But it is not what she would have dreamt of in January. There must be no more self-inflicted wounds next year.