NHS knows when you’re ill before you do

‘Sickness surveillance technology’ to be used for first time to better direct resources this winter

The NHS is trying to predict illnesses with a “sickness surveillance system” in an attempt to cope with winter pressures. The technology combines Met Office weather alerts with data gathered from GP surgeries and A&E wards to give early warning of outbreaks of flu or other seasonal illnesses.

THE NHS is to use a “sickness surveillance system” to predict illnesses this winter in an attempt to cope with crippling pressures.

The technology combines Met Office weather alerts with data gathered daily from GP surgeries, emergency departments, the NHS 111 helpline and walkin centres and is intended to give early warning of regional outbreaks of flu or other seasonal illnesses.

When it records a surge in any particular illness, it will provide the NHS with several days’ notice that hospitals in the same area are likely to see an influx of patients. In turn, they will have the chance to reschedule planned surgery, free up beds and ensure that enough staff are on standby, it is hoped.

They might also be able to switch outpatient appointments to “hot clinics” by providing direct access to GPS and have enough warning to arrange isolation areas for infectious patients with illnesses such as the norovirus, which can cause ward closures.

A spokesman from Public Health England (PHE), which developed and operates the system, said: “It will assess pressure points when they come up. For instance, hospitals expect an increase in heart attack or stroke admissions within a certain number of days, because they are complications that can develop from flu.”

The technology was first developed for the 2012 Olympic Games in London to give organisers an early warning of sickness bugs in the athletes’ village.

It has now been developed nationally and the NHS said this was the first year it was using it in this way.

Professor Keith Willett, NHS England’s medical director for acute care, said: “The impact major outbreaks of these illnesses can have on our hospitals cannot be underestimated – leading to wards being closed, with the loss of beds when we need them most.

“We can look at the trends across all of the PHE health data sources and try to anticipate surges in demand. The breadth and variety of surveillance data from PHE gives us vital time to put escalation plans in place, to free up beds and reconfigure wards.

“We can plan how to best provide care to a higher number of patients with a specific illness, and to corral patients who are suffering the same illnesses. It also means we can better predict when things will return to normal and plan accordingly.”

PHE said that, even in moderate conditions, for every 1C (1.8F) drop in temperature, there was a four per cent increase in deaths and a one per cent increase in emergency admissions.

A spokesman said it could track the sorts of infections patients were being treated for as well as the volume, providing an overall picture of how winter illnesses affect the country.

The NHS has been given an extra £335million this year to ease winter pressures, amid fears that hospitals would struggle if Britain were to suffer a flu epidemic.

Last winter, waiting times in A & E were among the worst on record, despite mild weather and low levels of flu.