What now for Spain, Puigdemont and independence?

Q How will the next Catalan government be formed – and by whom? A

The new parliament must sit by Jan 23, and vote for a new president to take office by Feb 6. The results of Thursday’s election gave the three proindependence parties – Junts Per Catalunya, the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the CUP – an absolute majority of 70 seats out of 135. It is unclear whether the CUP – a far-left, hardline secessionist party which won four seats – would be included in a governing coalition or whether the two larger parties would reach out for support, as during the previous administration. Q But isn’t the pro-union Ciudadanos the biggest single party now? A Yes, the centre-right party led by Inés Arrimadas beat Junts Per Catalunya by three seats, after impressive gains to become the voice of antiindependence Catalans. But the unionist bloc cannot form a government, so Ms Arrimadas’ victory has more symbolic than practical impact. Q

Will Carles Puigdemont return as president? A In a situation with many unknowns, that is one of the biggest. Junts Per Catalunya and ERC insist Mr Puigdemont is their only choice. But he faces arrest on sedition and rebellion charges if he sets foot on Spanish soil. He insisted that if he was selected as the next president, he would return but has demanded guarantees that he would not be detained. Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, made clear it is the courts, not the ballot boxes, that will decide his status.

Q What now for the independence project? A Independence parties claim a mandate for a Catalan Republic, and want negotiations and potentially a fresh referendum. Mr Rajoy says he may talk but has laid out a lot of red lines. At present, the prospects for breaking the stand-off seem to be slim.