Trump headed for re-election, experts believe
Continued support among Republicans and lack of Democrat contenders ‘put president in pole position’
Donald Trump is on course to win re-election in 2020, senior British diplomats believe as he approaches his first full year in office. They think that, despite a string of negative headlines, the US president has largely kept his support base onside, and benefits from a lack of Democrat contenders.
DONALD TRUMP is on course to win re-election in 2020, senior British diplomats believe as he approaches his first full year in office.
They think that, despite a string of negative headlines, the US president has largely kept his support base onside since entering the White House.
Possible Democratic contenders are seen as either too old – such as Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – or lacking in the name recognition needed to defeat Mr Trump.
There is also a belief the US president has curbed some of his most radical policy instincts since taking office, such as ignoring Nato or pulling out of Afghanistan.
The analysis underpins the advice Theresa May is given and shapes how she approaches the UK-US “special relationship”. Should Mr Trump’s presidency look set to stretch to 2024, the Prime Minister could be more inclined to turn a blind eye to rows over his tweeting.
The views may come as a surprise to British voters, who polls suggest take a dim view of his presidency. Mr Trump shocked the political establishment in November 2016 when he defeated the Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate and front-runner, to become president. His victory was credited to winning three swing states by a combined total of fewer than 80,000 votes – the slimmest of margins.
Since then, Mr Trump’s approval rating has slumped to the lowest ever for a post-war president after a year in office. Just one in three voters approves of Mr Trump’s job performance compared with one in two for Barack Obama at the same point in his presidency.
Yet senior British diplomats see few signs that Mr Trump is facing guaranteed defeat in 2020 and have questioned whether current Democratic front-runners have what it takes to win. They fear Mr Sanders, the 76-yearold senator who failed to win the Democratic nomination last year, and Mr Biden, the 75-year-old former vice-president, may have missed their chance. And they think younger potential candidates – such as Cory Booker, the New Jersey senator, or Kamala Harris, the California senator – are “yet to be tested” on the toughest political stage. They are not alone. Joshua Green, the author of Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump and the Storming of the Presidency, believes the president can win again.
His book detailed how Mr Trump tapped into white nationalism to win over the Republican base after becoming close to Mr Bannon, who would eventually run his campaign. Mr Green said: “He could absolutely win again in 2020. I don’t know why anybody, based on the track record of political predictions over the last three or four years, would presume to say otherwise. Trump was elected president with a very unpopular view [of him] nationally. It hasn’t gone that much worse.”
The midterms in 2018 are a vital test.
‘Trump was elected with a very unpopular view of him nationally. It hasn’t got much worse’
Mr Trump is hoping tax cuts can win over wavering supporters and is said to be planning to throw himself into the campaign trail, despite the political risk. A lot may also depend on the progress of Robert Mueller’s special investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russia, which has so far led to charges against four people.
A key question for 2020 is whether Mr Trump can keep hold of the “rust belt” voters in states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan who backed him in 2016.
Mr Green said: “If Trump loses it will be because he isn’t able to keep the support of Republican voters. But, by and large, Republican voters have bent themselves to Trump.”