Thwarted boundary reforms would have given Theresa May her majority

Conservatives were denied outright win by Lib Dems, who blocked a move to cut number of MPS to 600

THE Conservatives failed to secure an outright majority at the last general election because of a voting system slanted in favour of the Labour party.

Analysis just published reveals that the Tories would have been left with a majority had the boundary reforms, which have been frustrated by Labour and the Libdems, been in place.

Changes proposed by the Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to make the current system fairer would have given the Tories a small outright majority of 14 in the Commons in June’s general election.

The review of boundaries, which was proposed under the Coalition in 2010 but blocked at the time by the Liberal Democrats, would deliver on the Government’s pledge to cut the number of MPS by 50 to 600.

However, if the changes had been in place before the June election, the Conservatives would have won 307 seats, ahead of Labour (234 seats), the SNP (30 seats) and the Liberal Democrats (8 seats), with 21 seats going to other parties including the DUP.

It would have returned a Tory majority of 14 in a 600-seat Parliament. The actual result for the 650-seat Parliament was Conservative 318, Labour 262, SNP 35, Libdems 12, DUP 10 and others 13.

MPS will vote on the reforms in November next year, but the Government will have to fight to get them through the House of Commons.

So far proposals for England, Scotland and Wales have been published. The proposals for Northern Ireland are due to be published in the new year.

The Democratic Unionist Party – which is set to lose three MPS in draft plans – has already said that it will most likely vote against the changes unless they are watered down.

The changes would equalise a system that currently means that the average Tory MP has 74,434 constituents, compared with the average Labour MP, who has 70,528 voters.

After the changes the average electorate for a Tory seat would be 74,600, for a Labour seat 74,900 and 75,750 for a Liberal Democrat. Anthony Wells, Yougov’s director of Political and Social Research, which runs the UK Polling Report website, said the changes would mean “the system is no longer skewed towards the Labour party”.

He added: “The Conservatives would lose seats like the other parties, but in a smaller House of 600 MPS it would have been enough to give them a majority without having to rely upon the DUP.” The present constituency system is based on a population figure that was first drawn up in 2000.

One expert said that if the plans were blocked again, the next election, probably in May 2022, could be based on boundaries that would be 23 years out of date.

He said: “These would be the most out of date boundaries since the Second World War. This would be on boundaries based on the electorate numbers before some of the people voting were even born.”

Lord Hayward, who advised the Conservatives on the changes, said: “It makes sense that we work to equal sized constituencies across the UK.

“This was a proposal put forward originally by the Chartists almost two centuries ago. Surely its time has come.

“We have the largest lower chamber in the western world.

“We are over-governed as a nation and need to reduce that financial and administrative burden on the taxpayer and businesses.

“It cannot be acceptable that we are being asked, at a time great population mobility, to retain boundaries for the next election which would be the most outdated since the Second World War.”

John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a senior research fellow at Natcen Social Research, said: “There is no doubt that the boundaries are 20-odd years out of date. There are plenty of inequalities.”

Sam Hartley, the secretary for the Boundary Commission for England, said the changes would “make a more equal distribution of voters across the country”.

He added: “At the moment the smallest constituency in England is 55,000 and the largest is 90,000.

“Our work will – if it is accepted by Parliament – ensure that all of those constituencies are brought much closer so that the number of voters in every constituency are much closer to the average, thus ensuring that everyone’s votes are worth, as close as possible, the same amount as in a neighbouring constituency.” of