Republicans brace for voter backlash in ‘Trump country’
On a bitterly cold night outside Pittsburgh hundreds of newly energised Democrats trudged through the snow and into a chilly building. They were there for the opening of Conor Lamb’s field office, and to see the beginnings of what they hoped was a political earthquake that would send tremors to Washington.
Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional district is up for grabs in a special election on March 13 after Tim Murphy, the sitting Republican, resigned in disgrace. The pro-life congressman was accused of asking his mistress to have an abortion.
The district had been so Republican that the Democrats did not even field a candidate against Mr Murphy in 2012 or 2016. Donald Trump won it by 20 points, helping to turn the once blue state red for the first time since 1988.
One year after the president’s inauguration, this election is a key test of how he has fared with voters in swing states like Pennsylvania.
Democrats are riding a wave of recent victories. Last month they won a Senate seat in Republican Alabama. This week they took a seat in a Wisconsin district where Mr Trump won by 17 points in 2016.
They smell blood in Pennsylvania. The 18th district is a red line for Republicans. A Democrat win would set them on course to take back the House of Representatives in November and torpedo Mr Trump’s ability to get his agenda through Congress. So the Republican cavalry is being sent in. Mr Trump himself arrived on Thursday to endorse Rick Saccone, the party’s candidate. Fifty volunteers are to knock on 250,000 doors. Millions of dollars will be spent on attack adverts.
The focus of these will be Mr Lamb, a 33-year-old former Marine and Ivy League lawyer who believes he can win back large numbers of Blue Dog voters – working class, conservative, Democrats-turned-republican.
He knows the Democrats lost Pennsylvania in 2016 because they failed to energise their own voters.
“We’re doing it the old -fashioned way this time, knocking on doors every day. The enthusiasm is definitely there,” he told The Daily Telegraph at his field office. He said one woman came to one of his events despite having three broken ribs.
The change of strategy will mean no attack upon Mr Trump, as Democrats did in 2016. Instead, Mr Lamb will prioritise issues like healthcare. “I’m not running against the president,” he said. “We’ve had a lot of Republican support. What people want is someone to go to Washington, work with the other side and get things done. It’s 2018 and we don’t know if our government is about to shut down and that’s not good enough.”
Can he win? “Yes,” he answered with the firmness of a Marine. But much as Mr Lamb doesn’t want to talk about Mr Trump, the special election will inevitably become a referendum on the president’s year in office.
That is partly because Mr Saccone, 59, a long-time state politician, has described himself as “Trump before Trump was Trump”.
He wants to expand gun owners’ rights and restrict abortion rights. Mr Saccone once succeeded in having Pennsylvania declare 2012 the Year of the Bible, a move that caused national controversy. At a campaign event in Hungry Jose’s pizza restaurant, he said: “This is Trump country. Everybody here loves the president. It’s not just his agenda, it’s our agenda. He’s speaking to their hearts.”
He rejected attempts by Democrats to paint him as an intractable “archconservative”. Mr Saccone has a PHD in international affairs, has visited 75 countries, written nine books, and in the 1990s spent a year in North Korea on a diplomatic mission.
“Look, I was able to find common ground in North Korea, so I can work with Democrats,” he said.
Thursday’s visit by Mr Trump was a boost for him – the president called Mr Saccone a “spectacular man”.
Speaking at a factory the president declared: “It’s the economy stupid!
“Did you ever hear that one? You loved that tax cut, didn’t you?”
The president basked in the adoration of his audience. “We love you,” cried the crowd. Mr Trump smiled broadly, in a way he rarely does in Washington. A year in office has, it seems, not dimmed but intensified the enthusiasm of his base in industrial areas such as the 18th district.
David Williams, 74, told The Telegraph: “What’s happened is you guys in the media have missed the big picture.” The retired, middle-class spectator, with a Proud To Be A Trump Deplorable shirt visible beneath his expensive overcoat, said: “All they do in Washington is talk about small, petty stuff, gossip from a book. But we’re thriving here. We see the new jobs. We see the stock market.” He added: “I can’t defend the tweets though. Maybe he should back off on that.”
Joe Kansco, 50, a crane technician, said he had not spoken to a single person over the last year, at work or in his personal life, who did not support Mr Trump: “Yes, I can honestly say that. Everyone I know is still behind him 110 per cent.”
Clearly, he had not been to affluent Mount Lebanon nearby. There, on the drives, Lamb for Congress signs adorn snow-capped stone houses. There was not a single “Saccone” sign.
“There are lifelong Republicans here who think he (Mr Trump) is off his rocker,” said Clare Drake, 29, a barista at the local coffee shop.
Christopher Borick, a political science professor in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said losing the 18th district would send Republicans into “panic mode”.
Leslie Baum Rossi owns the “Trump House” – a home painted red, white and blue with a mammoth cut-out of Mr Trump in the garden.
“There are Democrats here who voted for the president because he cares about them,” she said. “But when it comes to a Congressional election, they may vote differently. They’re Democrats after all. The president coming here certainly helps, and I’m glad he did – because he needed to.”