Kenny Logan

Townsend’s thrilling side can tear their hosts apart and end their 16-year Cardiff hoodoo

Why Scotland will have too much for Wales

Scotland will win in Cardiff this afternoon for the first time since 2002 to get their Natwest Six Nations campaign off to the perfect start. Gregor Townsend’s men genuinely believe they are championship contenders and they are right to do so. This Scotland side comfortably beat Wales last year and have come on in leaps and bounds since then, as back-to-back wins over Australia proved.

All the talk of Scotland’s injury crisis has been overblown, it is Wales who have lost a whole slew of genuinely key players and who will be far more disrupted.

Whereas Scotland and Glasgow’s style of play is interchangeable, the Welsh game plan under Warren Gatland has been very different. It is impossible to pick so many Scarlets players and not expect the side to play like them, and for me the selection of Rhys Patchell is an acceptance from Gatland that Wales will have to embrace the Scarlets’ expansive credo. But ultimately the sort of fast, open game favoured by the Scarlets will play into Scotland’s hands. If the visitors can get anywhere near parity up front – and I believe they can – their back division has the capacity to tear Wales apart.

I think Gregor has made all the right calls behind the scrum, starting with the selection of Ali Price. I really rate Greig Laidlaw, but if Scotland want to play the sort of high-tempo game that was so effective in the autumn, they really need the energy, urgency and pace that Price brings. I also really like the look of this centre partnership, which is defensively strong but potent in attack. Huw Jones is a big unit, but moving him to inside centre, where he was very effective in the Currie Cup final, is a good move. Outside him, the 6ft 3in Chris Harris is big and strong, and also has the best offloading stats in the Premiership. They will be stonewall in defence and an offloading nightmare in attack.

But it is in the back three that Scotland rightly feel they have a huge advantage. I have always loved Leigh Halfpenny as a player, but he just cannot live with Stuart Hogg’s speed and elusiveness, while Scotland have a major advantage on the wings. Byron Mcguigan is a top try poacher while Tommy Seymour is hugely experienced and combines brilliantly with Hogg in attack.

I am also sensing a physical mismatch, with Halfpenny and Steff Evans both short men, while Seymour is at his best chasing the high ball so expect a succession of steepling kicks from Finn Russell.

Another major reason for plumping for Scotland is their strength off the bench. Against both Australia and New Zealand, the bench made a real impact and this time, with over 200 caps, it has never been stronger. Sign up to The Doddie Gump, a race supporting @Doddieweir5 in his quest to further research into MND treatments. doddiegump.com