Civil Service’s indignation is self-defeating

Whenever the cosy consensus of the establishment is challenged, its sound and fury becomes personal. I wonder how many now recall that in 1981, 364 economists attacked Mrs Thatcher’s economic reforms as essentially mad. How wrong they proved.

I remember, too, the treatment of those of us who had the temerity to oppose the signing of the Maastricht treaty in the early Nineties. We were attacked as idiots: mad, bad and dangerous to know. Now it is worse. Those who supported the vote to Leave in 2016 are regularly referred to as swivel-eyed loons, with one Remain-supporting minister openly describing them as “represent[ing] the swivel-eyed few”.

Politics is, at the best of times, a rough old trade. But the systematic attempt to traduce the capability and legitimacy of those who backed Brexit is the Establishment at its worst. Nothing exemplifies this more than the eruption of self-righteous indignation from senior civil servants and politicians following the leaked report on the costs of leaving the EU.

Gus O’donnell, ex-head of the Civil Service, accused Brexiteers of being “snake oil salesmen”. His predecessor Lord Turnbull even fantastically likened those who criticise them to Nazis. Yet Brexiteers have simply pointed out that the leaked report

‘The systematic attempt to traduce the ... legitimacy of Brexit backers is the Establishment at its worst’

follows all the other Civil Service reports in being completely wrong about the UK’S prospects after Brexit. Even the OBR forecast, only months after the Budget, was wrong; how is it possible to confidently predict the next 15 years when the Treasury finds it difficult to forecast even one year ahead? In fact it is on this occasion civil servants who do not seem to like having their product tested.

Of course, they must be impartial, and having sat in government I have the highest regard for their skill and determination. But that doesn’t stop them from getting their advice wrong; impartiality is not infallibility, even if your nickname, like Gus O’ Donnell, is “God”.

The Civil Service, like any other organisation, will at times suffer from groupthink. There are many economists outside government, whose record at forecasting is better than the Treasury, who disagree with its forecasts on Brexit. Are they also to be cast as mad, bad and dangerous to know? Such attacks are self-defeating.

Lady Thatcher said of them: “I always cheer up immensely… because if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.” Quite so.